Gold, the Euro and the US Dollar

By FX Insights Moderator,

If you’ve spent even just a brief amount of time at FX Insights, surely you’ve noticed how close we watch and track the EUR/USD’s market correlated variables… and just to give the term a proper definition, my definition of what a market correlated variable is:

"A non-Forex factor that has direct connection to the EUR/USD and to the EUR/USD’s price fluctuations."

To put it another way, market correlated variables are factors happening outside of the Forex world, yet have major direct impact on whether the EUR/USD goes up, goes down, and to what degree these moves may occur.

Trading: Primarily, gold is traded on the NYMEX. For gold, there is a spot market, a futures market, and an options market. Gold is traded by everyone from the small potatoes retail investor all the way up the ladder to large banks, hedge funds, institutions, and further on up to the central banks of the world.

Major reasons why gold is purchased: Gold is purchased as a hedge against inflation. Gold is also purchased in “response” to a weakening currency, which in the case of the EUR/USD, gold is and would be purchased as the value of the dollar falls against the euro. Gold can be bought and gold can be shorted, just like a currency can in the spot FX market.

Gold and central banks: Although both the dollar and the euro are fiat currencies, the Fed and ECB have vast gold holdings within their reserves. One way the Fed and ECB control and manipulate the value of their respective currencies is by trading their vast gold reserves. The ECB is especially notorious for dumping many tonnes of their gold on the market at certain times of the year to “cool down” the value of the euro against the dollar. Gold is a powerful market manipulation tool at the hands of the central banks, and the market usually only learns of a central bank’s gold operations after the fact…

Key gold facts: The main reason why the commodity of gold is highly correlated to the EUR/USD is because gold is denominated in U.S. dollars. Gold and the USD share an inverse correlation… think of it this way, when gold is purchased, the USD is sold… the selling of any currency will naturally devalue that currency, so as gold is purchased and the price of gold rises, the value and “price” of the USD must fall because of the inverse correlation that exists between gold and dollar.

It’s my understanding that in 2001 gold began making a very strong resurgence which has ultimately led to this commodity making all-time highs in the $940’s…

This past week the USD/CHF went to post-World War II lows while gold was making all-time highs. Going back to 2001, look at the EUR’s climb to dominance over the USD… looking at the big picture, the EUR/USD has moved up in tandem with gold, while the USD Index has moved against gold and the EUR/USD…

Other key facts about gold and the USD: As we mentioned earlier, gold is denominated in U.S. dollars. So lets think about it… if the dollar is strong, you could buy more gold, literally getting more bang for your buck… a weak dollar buys less gold… here we have yet another reason why the weak dollar will only keep upward momentum going for gold – as long as the USD stays weak, the market stays bearish on the USD, gold naturally has to stay strong and has to rise, which then naturally correlates into the EUR staying bullish against the USD.

Gold and inflation: Back in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s U.S. inflation was absolutely out of control, and this runaway inflation issue took gold up to almost the $900 level, which must have been a staggering price back in those days… the Fed had to raise interest rates several hundred basis points very rapidly to slow inflation and this eventual mega rise in interest rates caused gold to loose half of it’s value and by 1983 gold was in the $400’s.

So as you can see, inflation is another key factor in the value of gold… when inflation rises, gold rises, but when a central bank steps in with interest-rate-raising tactics to slow inflation, gold will fall in value accordingly… and following this natural progression… higher rates = less inflation = weaker gold. Higher rates = a stronger dollar and a stronger dollar = weaker gold…

In many ways inflation is reflected in the price of gold which is then reflected in the price of the EUR/USD as more times than not gold leads the EUR/USD…

Practical exercise: I’d like to pause and take you through a practical exercise… this is how I think things through and how I attempt to forecast the market and formulate a predictive view of the EUR/USD… this is the kind of stuff that goes on in my head, so I’m going to do my best to communicate it as simply and clearly as possible…

First, I always start with interest rates… interest rates, as you’ve heard me say a katrillion times are paramount in the spot FX market…

For now I see the Fed in a rate cut cycle and the ECB in a rate hold cycle, at least through the spring of this year… I think the Fed can cut rates another 50bps or more before it’s all said and done. So going forward starting with interest rate cuts, here’s how I think it through:

1. Fed rates stay at 3.00% and possibly get cut further

2. Low rates and rate cuts weaken and devalue the USD

3. The weak USD correlates into higher gold prices

4. Higher gold prices correlate into the EUR/USD continuing to make bullish gains

5. Rate cuts and weak USD lead to rising U.S. inflation

6. Rising inflation leads to buying of gold, driving gold prices higher, driving EUR/USD higher

7. Rising inflation causes the consumer to slow spending, which further weakens the USD

So, that’s my logical way of thinking through what’s happening within the market under current conditions. The Fed seems reluctant to combat inflation and hell-bent on trying to stimulate growth and appease global markets with heavy rate cuts, so I believe this will naturally lead to more gold gains which should keep the euro supported against the dollar, at least until the Eurozone fundamentals really start turning south and the ECB begins following the Fed with rate cuts of their own, at which time we should see some rapid declines in the value of the EUR vs. the USD.

Gold and recessions: Currently, the hot debate is whether or not the U.S. is in a full-blown recession, the start of a recession, or a few negative GDP reports away from a recession… I’m not a college-degreed economist, so I can’t give you the textbook answer… personally, I look at two key things to help me determine a U.S. recession situation, and those two factors are gold and the employment situation (which then trickles down to the death of the consumer).

The rapid rise in gold prices and the rapid decline in new job creations, the loss of construction and manufacturing jobs, the rise in new and continuing jobless claims and the almost 100bps rise in the unemployment rate signal a real recession… and I think these signals were obvious many months ago when gold really started taking off…

But here’s where it gets a little weird with gold and recessions – believe it or not, history has shown us that when the U.S. is in a full-blown, established, and recognized recession, the price of gold has stabilized and or declined! So this means if all the world’s economists put their heads together and officially declare that the U.S. is in a recession, we could see the price of gold level off or drop, which could push the value of the USD up against the EUR…doesn’t make much sense that the USD could strengthen during a recession, but it’s certainly possible…

Gold and trading the EUR/USD: Here’s where we get practical when it comes to using gold as an indicator to trade the EUR/USD…

Quite simply, I am watching the spot gold market just as much as I’m watching the EUR/USD price action… moves in the price of gold more often than not will lead moves in the EUR/USD… gold is a tremendous leading indicator… if I’m trading the market intraday, I’m watching every little uptick and downtick with gold… I watch the NY spot gold market like a hawk…

If you’re one of our many tech traders trying to wean off the techs and learn how the EUR/USD really moves and why it really moves, you’d be well served watching the spot gold market as a key indicator… do yourself a favor and compare a 1-week gold chart to a 1-week EUR/USD chart, pick any week really, and you’ll see what I’m talking about…

There’s really no way I can glamorize the gold-EUR/USD correlation… it’s fairly simple and fairly cut and dry… it’s not a magic bullet indicator, and as I always say, there’s no such thing as “always” in the FX market, but gold is a highly probable and fairly consistent market correlated variable.

If you don’t track it or use it as a trading indicator, I encourage you to begin doing so… it’s only going to enhance your trading and give you more wins vs. losses as it will paint a clearer picture of market direction.

When the spot gold market is volatile you can expect the EUR/USD to be volatile… when gold decides to find its next top and correct, you can likely expect the EUR/USD to correct with it… the overall euro fundamentals do not warrant the value of the EUR/USD to be north of 1.4200, however, because of market correlated variables like gold being on such a bullish run, the euro naturally has to come up with it…

Again, of all the market correlated variables like oil, bonds, and equities, I believe the tightest overall correlation exists between gold and the EUR/USD.

Lastly, based on past experiences, I know there’s somebody or several somebodies out there who’ve read this and are thinking, “So if gold goes up, what does the EUR/USD do?” If you’re not sure, find me in the chat and ask, I can always use the amusement…

-FX Insights

The International Muggers Fund

This is the new boss at the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

He is affiliated to the Socialist Party in France. The political ideology of the Socialist Party is Social democracy. So what is socialism? The wolf disguised in sheeps clothing, namely communism.

From the Fabian Socialists, our dear friends John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White were delegates at 1944's United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, where of course the IMF was found. Brilliant!

No wonder the financial system is a mess. Socialists managing capitalism! Hah! I however believe it is the other way around. It is the Socialists working towards the destruction of capitalism through the use of inflation.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is what the Fed is busy doing to the dollar. Inflating, deflating, inflating, deflating until such time the US Dollar as the World Reserve Currency implodes, which will herald the day of whatever new or other currency they have up their sleeves.

The UN is part of this Global Hegemony of Socialists/Communists, and this is what one lone individual, namely Ron Paul, is up against.

A vote against Ron Paul is a vote in favour of this abomination that is devouring our freedom. Essentially, Ron Paul is fighting for the freedom of every individual on this planet.

Wake Up !!!

Something Smells Fishy Here

New cable cut compounds net woes


BBC News - A submarine cable in the Middle East has been snapped, adding to global net problems caused by breaks in two lines under the Mediterranean on Wednesday.

The Falcon cable, owned by a firm which operates another damaged cable, led to a "critical" telecom breakdown, according to one local official.

The cause of the latest break has not been confirmed but a repair ship has been deployed, said owner Flag Telecom.

The earlier break disrupted service in Egypt, the Middle East and India.

******

My Comment: Something is going on here. Two cable cuts in a week...deep under the ocean???

Music to my Ears

KT Tunstall - Saving my Face



KT Tunstall - Black Horse And The Cherry Tree (ABSOLUTELY AWSOME!!!)

Jim Cramer dissed by Rick Santelli

A boiled Egg is hard to beat

Reuters reports that the Web bank Egg withdraws cards from riskier customers. The Citigroup owned bank, following a risk review, will withdraw credit cards from 161,000 of their customers.

The Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking Away

Cash strapped consumers are increasingly turning to charge cards and home equity lines to support consumption. Some Debt Trends Are Good. This Isn’t One of Them.

American credit card debt is growing at the fastest rate in years, a fact that may signal coming trouble for the banks that issue them.

The Federal Reserve reported this week that the amount of revolving consumer credit that is outstanding hit $937.5 billion in November, seasonally adjusted, up 7.4 percent from a year earlier. The annual growth rate has now been over 7 percent for three months running, the first such stretch since 2001, when a recession was driving up borrowing by hard-pressed consumers.

More Salad, Less Twinkies

By Peter Schiff,

February 1, 2008

Despite the fact that the Fed still believes that a recession is unlikely to occur, Bernanke & Co. followed up on last week’s emergency 75 basis point rate cut with a 50 basis point kicker on Wednesday. Not to be outdone by the Fed’s generosity, the House of Representatives and the Bush Administration slapped together a $150 billion “stimulus package”, which can only be delayed by the Senate’s desire to join in the bead throwing. On Wall Street these actions were cheered as heroic, with praise and accolades for all (what could be more politically courageous than handing out free money in an election year.) In a recent poll, fully 78% of economists thought these policies were appropriate…while 18% thought that they were not aggressive enough.

A common definition of insanity is the act of repeating the same activity while expecting a different result. Bernanke is now repeating the same mistakes made by Greenspan, yet he and almost everyone on Wall Street expect a different result. The stock market bubble of the 1990s resulted from interest rates being too low, which sent false signals to businesses, causing them to over-invest in information technology, telecom, and dot coms. When that bubble burst, rather than allowing the corrective recession to run its course, the Fed responded by slashing interest rates. The result was an even larger bubble in real estate; causing consumers to borrow far too much money to buy houses and other goodies.

Now that the housing bubble has burst, the Fed is once again slashing interest rates to postpone the pain. However, in order to correct for years of extravagant borrowing and spending, the country is in desperate need of a period of saving and economizing. But by rewarding debtors and punishing savers, lower interest rates actually encourage the opposite behavior. Given how much harm this strategy has already done in the past why should we assume it will work any better now?

Consider a real world example. Suppose your spendthrift neighbor, maxed out on credit card and home equity debt, no savings in the bank, struggling to make ends meet and one paycheck away from foreclosure and personal bankruptcy, comes to you for financial advice regarding what to do with the $1,200 he received in the Federal Stimulus Lottery? Would your advice be to “go out and buy yourself a brand new plasma T.V.”? My guess is that you would suggest he pay down his debts. If you were a good friend you might help him devise a budget to put his financial house back in order. Such a plan might include trading in his Mercedes SUV for a more fuel efficient Honda, brown bag lunches instead of expensive restaurants, tearing up department store charge cards, cancelling vacations, cutting back premium cable channels, etc. When you are neck deep in debt, the solution is to economize, ratchet down your lifestyle and repair your personal balance sheet. In other words, you go though your own personal recession.

Would your advice be any different if it was not just one neighbor asking but 300 million? If it’s wrong for an overly-indebted individual to blow a windfall, it’s just as wrong if millions of us do it collectively. If our economy is already suffering from too much debt, think of how much worse off we will be after we blow through these rebate checks.

Or think about it this way -- Imagine an obese individual showing up at a Weight Watchers meeting and his counselor handing him a box of Twinkies? How much weight do you think would be lost on the “Twinkie diet?” American consumers have basically stuffed themselves almost to the point of explosion. What is needed is salad; not more Twinkies.

Ironically of course, by blowing up both the stock market bubble in the 1990s and the real estate bubble that followed, Greenspan actually repeated the same mistakes that previous Fed chairmen Benjamin Strong and William McChensey Martin made in the 1920s and the 1960s respectively. It seems sanity is a major disqualification for central bankers.

For a more in depth analysis of the tenuous position of the Americana economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.”

******

Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, Peter is a highly recommended broker by many leading financial newsletters and investment advisory services. He is also a contributing commentator for Newsweek International and served as an economic advisor to the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.

What Will You Do With Your Gold?

by Gary North

This assumes you have bought some gold.

A lot of my readers have read my recommendation – "Buy some gold" – for six years. They still haven't bought any. They apparently think it's good enough to have read a few reports on the importance of buying gold. "Now I don't actually have to buy any." It's like an overweight person reading a diet book while munching on Fritos and bean dip.

There is an astounding amount of misinformation on gold available on the Web. This shows the tremendous impact of the Web. Back in 1995, this misinformation was far more limited in its scope.

Here is the main piece of information: "Gold! Gold! I'll be rich – rich, I tell you! Hahahahaha."

No, you won't. Here's why.

The Revolution: A Manifesto

'Truth is treason in the empire of lies.'



The people who pledged at RonPaulBookBomb.com today have caused Ron Paul's new Book, The Revolution: A Manifesto to rise to the Top 100 Bestsellers. It is now beating out both Obama and Colbert. This is just the beginning, of course. Look out for The Manifesto in the top 10! It's currently at #3!

I have just pre-ordered my copy. I can't make a donation, so I found another way to support the good man! :-)

Who Owns You ???

WARNING: Some rough language in this clip

New Ron Paul Ad

EURUSD 1.50 Within Reach Though Retailers Increasing Their Shorts

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 20.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 28.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. The considerable jump in short positioning over the past week reflects retailers’ confidence in resistance read at 1.49. However, since retailers are usually on the wrong side of the trade on trends and breakouts, this position may foreshadow the break to 1.50 that the market has threatened for many months.

Full Article

Stagflation dilemma haunts euro

But other analysts say European growth worries are premature

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to the threat of stagflation, the European Central Bank has appeared much more worried about the inflation portion of that dreaded compound word than signs of a stagnating economy.

But some foreign exchange analysts say Thursday's muted reaction by foreign-exchange and fixed-income markets to another round of troubling euro zone inflation data increased the likelihood that policymakers may soon pay more heed to signs of slowing European growth.
Stagflation describes a period of low or negative growth and high price inflation. Signs of the latter have been evident for a while, and more evidence emerged Thursday.

READ THE REST

The BIG Spenders vs The One Cutter

Click on the Image for the Bigger Picture

U.S. mortgage rates reverse course and rise

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage rates rose this week, ending about a month-long streak of declines, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey released Thursday.

"The movement in fixed mortgage rates was broadly consistent with the movements of Treasury bonds over the week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a news release. The 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by about 0.2 percentage points, he said, erasing the previous week's decline.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.68% during the week ending Jan. 31, up from last week's 5.48%. The mortgage averaged 6.34% a year ago. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.17%, up from 4.95%. The mortgage averaged 6.06% a year ago.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.32%, up from last week's 5.13%. The ARM averaged 6.04% a year ago. And 1-year Treasury -indexed ARMs averaged 5.05%, up from 4.99%. The ARM averaged 5.54% a year ago.

READ THE REST

Expect more than a typical recession

SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- Call this the perfect financial storm or what you will; Wall Street has made fools of financial institutions around the world with their CMOs, CDOs, and greedy boo-boos.

At least they didn't lose as much as their customers. The stock market is in distress, bond insurers are looking for a $200 billion bailout, junk-bond markets are at risk of further losses and life-, home- and auto insurers' risk has not yet been fully assessed.

We need real ready-to-go financial leadership and we need it now. Tell the presidential candidates, Congress and economists to stay home. We need regulators with clear priorities.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, former FDIC Chairman Bill Isaacs and anyone they trust would be good choices. They beat inflation and presided over the savings and loan cleanup. Tell Ben Bernanke to go home.

As for you personally, it's every person for themselves and their family. Study the charts: This is a bear market.

READ THE REST

Jobless claims surge, spending softens

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of workers filing new claims for jobless aid surged last week to the highest since October 2005, and consumer spending softened at the end of last year, according to reports on Thursday that heightened worries about a possible recession.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 69,000 last week to 375,000. It was the biggest jump since September 2005 and the highest since October of that year, just after Hurricane Katrina devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Separately, the Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up by 0.2 percent in December after a 1 percent gain in November, just enough to keep pace with inflation.

READ THE REST

Gold Investments Market Update

Prior to the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest cut to 3%, gold was down $3.60 to $921.20 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 4 cents to $16.74 per ounce. Gold surged (from $920 to $934.25) to new record highs after the interest rate decision at 2:30 p.m (1930 GMT) in after-hours trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Silver surged to new highs at $16.87.

Both have seen profit taking and have since sold off in Asian and European trading. A monthly close above $900 tomorrow, the first ever, would obviously be very bullish from a technical point of view.

Negative real interest rates (with the key discount rate less than the rate of inflation) in the world’s largest economy is very inflationary and could lead to gold reaching $1,000 in the coming weeks, as the dollar comes under further pressure. The moniker ‘Helicopter Bernanke’ is looking more and more apposite as the Federal Reserve chairman again drops copious amounts of liquidity onto the increasingly troubled financial and economic waters. The risk is that by attempting to prevent deflation in asset classes, the Federal Reserve ends up creating stagflation and a mild form of hyperinflation. Or even worse by endeavoring to protect the banks, stock and property markets they end up putting the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency at risk.

READ THE REST

Eskom Withdraws Authorisation for Mining Industry

JOHANNESBURG, January 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Gold Fields Limited ("Gold Fields") (NYSE, JSE, DIFX: GFI) is disappointed to confirm that Eskom has informed the Company that authorisation to increase electricity load from 80% to 90% by this evening, has been temporarily withdrawn in order to "protect further frequency decay and system instability."

To comply with this instruction, and in the interest of safety, production at Gold Fields' operations is being pulled back to the 80% power level.

READ THE REST

Dealing with Recession

Clifford F. Thies

For all the talk by the Federal Reserve about "inflation targeting," we now see that responding to short-run problems is paramount for the Fed. Holding the line on inflation is something the Fed does when it is convenient. Resorting to inflating the money supply when times are tough is predictable, as is a continuing loss of purchasing power of the US dollar. The only uncertainty is how fast the dollar will lose purchasing power. Will it be at a creeping rate, or at a galloping rate, or at a hyperinflationary rate?

You might think that we learned our lesson about inflation during the 1970s, when we moved first from a creeping to a galloping rate, and then risked a further move to hyperinflation. The double-dip recession we then went through starting in 1979 fell in the second tier of economic downturns (below only the Great Depression). There is currently no indication that a severe downturn is on the horizon. But, if we work hard enough at it, with fiscal and monetary policy pumping up the economy and delaying and exacerbating the inevitable, we can make such a severe recession possible in the future. FULL ARTICLE

Ron Paul's replies on CNN debate Jan. 30, '08

And here is a Debate Synopsis by Justin Raimondo on Takimag.com

Four signs that gold has further to rise

It's been a great start to the year for gold - and its fellow precious metals - so far.

In fact, I’m beginning to wonder if my target of a high in gold of $1150 an ounce this year was a little conservative. Perhaps I’m feeling too exuberant and that’s a warning signal, but there are certain signs that suggest an intermediate-term top is coming - I'll tell you what they are in a moment - and I don’t see many of them.

In fact, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates later today by half a point, we might even see my target before the end of February...

READ THE REST

MBIA credit rating fear

Shares in MBIA, the world's biggest bond insurer, tumbled after reporting its largest-ever quarterly loss and admitting it's considering how to raise new capital.

Late yesterday the company reported a loss of $2.3bn for the last three months of 2007. MBIA, which together with other bond insurers guarantees $2.4 trillion of debt, is scrambling to keep hold of its top credit rating. The loss of the rating would threaten the ratings of a further $652bn of securities.

Analysts reckon that fears that MBIA and Ambac will lose their ratings contributed to the volatilty in stock markets last week.

The high-profile banking analyst who triggered the resignation of Citigroup chairman Charles "Chuck" Prince is predicting investment banks will need to take further write-downs of $40bn (£20bn) to $70bn as a result of the current crisis in the bond insurance market.

READ THE REST

Update: MBIA shares rise; bond insurer highlights liquidity

Also note the Ripple Impact of $534 Billion Debt Downgrade

Desperate Measures in Desperate Times

The Fed cut interest rates eight days after the last shift, but why do I feel that the biggest economy in the world is being run on a rolling day-to-day basis with policy makers reacting to each and every little toss and swirl of the markets?

Last week we had a 0.75pc cut which was odd enough (striking one almost as if game of scissors, paper, rock presided over whether to go for 1pc, 0.75pc or 0.5pc and paper won).
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Then, however, to follow it up only a few short days later with another 0.5pc smacks of desperation. The theory going round is that the Fed does not want to be seen as having being spooked by the Société Générale debacle, about which they were as in the dark as the French Government and has, therefore, followed up last week's panic move with a further cut. A bit fanciful, perhaps, but the whole thing does look a bit strange.

READ THE REST

Forex Market Update - 30/01/2008

By FX Insights Moderator,

As expected, Bernanke and the FOMC gave the markets an additional 50bps cut, dropping the Fed's key interest rate to a paltry 3.00%... The market's first-wave, initial response was to drive the euro up 100 pips against the dollar, but as we indicated in our chat this afternoon, we'd then see a pullback and retracement of at least 50 pips, which has since materialized as we're sitting comfortably at the 1.4830 level...

There's just a few points I want to cover in today's update... some food for thought going forward... Today's Fed action, in my opinion, will keep the USD under pressure in the near-term. In yesterday's update we discussed each possible scenario that could play out today and I won't take the time to re-hash as you can read yesterday's update if you like...

In addition, Fed Funds Futures is pricing in additional rate cuts in March, possibly bringing the Fed's key interest rate as low as 2.25%! So, what does this mean for the dollar? I'd like to use the CHF as an example of something I believe could play out should the Fed decide to keep cutting and cutting and cutting all the way down to 2.25% or lower... For the past few years the Swiss have kept their key interest rate at or below the 2.50% level -- it was only last year that the SNB finally moved rates to where they currently sit at 2.75%, which is a major factor why the CHF has gained against the USD...

Now, when the Swiss kept rates hovering around the 2.00% to 2.50% levels, the markets beatup the CHF by using it as a funding currency and as a carry trade currency... the crazy thing about that is, Switzerland has always been a very fundamentally sound economy and very prosperous, with solid GDP and low unemployment rates, however, their artificially low interest rates took a damaging toll on the CHF... banks, investors, and traders used the CHF as a funding currency because Swiss rates were so low and it was cheap to borrow and cheap to repay...

These banks and investors would use cheap francs to invest in either higher yielding currencies and or higher yielding investments like equities, commodities, etc... you get the idea... What I'm getting at is this -- should the Fed keep hacking interest rates, keep price fixing, and keep devaluing the dollar, I believe the USD could go the way the CHF went for the past few years, which is the USD being used as a funding or carry trade currency...

Think about it... these are some scary and current interest rate differentials:

USD and AUD -- 375bps in favor of the AUD
USD and NZD -- 525bps in favor of the NZD
USD and EUR -- 100bps in favor of the EUR
USD and GBP -- 250bps in favor of the GBP
USD and CHF -- 25bps in favor of the USD

In this market, the money flows to where there is a higher rate of return and right now, there are many other places to get a higher rate of return...

Now, I'm not making any predictions that the dollar is going to turn into a carry traded currency, but I truly believe this is a real potential should the Fed keep on this super rate cut cycle... with those interest rate differentials as they are presently, why would the banks buy up dollars, especially if the Fed is just going to keep going lower with rates? Maybe I'm thinking too logically here, but it just wouldn't make any sense to say buy dollars and sell-off Aussies when there's a 375bps interest rate differential... Moving on...

Today's action left some traders scratching their heads, wondering why the euro couldn't sustain a break above the 1.4900 level... well, please keep in mind we have a mega fundamental release -- NFP.Now that the banks have gotten today's FOMC out of the way, the next hurdle before we make any bigger, extended moves is Friday's NFP...

I believe the banks are formulating a gameplan and are likely saving their heaviest firepower for Friday... in addition to NFP, there's likely an option expiry on Friday morning, after NFP, at the option barrier of 1.5000... We'll talk more about NFP tomorrow and as we run-up to the data release... but as far as trading goes, it's the same old story I've been saying for the past two weeks...

I'm staying euro long at this point -- cautiously long -- playing the market tight on the intraday, and keeping my best euro longs from the 4385 to 4658 level open at this point on a swing basis... We could certainly see some more retracement between the 0300 and 0700 EST timeframes as the market may want to allow the euro to correct a bit, then buyers will re-emerge to pickup better entries... Can we go to 1.5000? At this point, I believe it's possible...

I have to imagine there are some big stop sets between 1.5000 and 1.5020, and experience tells me the banks and brokers will do what they can to run stops and trigger stops... that being said, let me repeat that I'm playing the intraday cautiosly long and certainly not loading the boat and blindly expecting 1.5000 to show up on our doorsteps by Friday... As always, please practice smart and strict risk/money management the rest of this week... keep your margin in check...

Today's price action for the euro was correlated to the Dow, gold, and oil, so let's keep our eyes on those market correlated variables as we trade tomorrow... fundamentally, we have another huge day tomorrow, so please prepare accordingly... bear in mind, as we said, the market may be holding it's heaviest fire power for Friday...Lastly, if you're a yen trader, stay strapped in because your rollercoaster ride from hell could just be getting warmed up in the near-term...

-FX Insights

Fed slashes rates as US recession looms

The Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates for the second time in little over a week as the US economy stands on the brink of recession.

The Fed, which stunned markets with an emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points last Tuesday, reduced rates by 0.5 percentage points to 3pc.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee made their decision hours after figures from the US Commerce Department showed that gross domestic product slowed to its weakest level of growth in five years in the last three months of 2007.

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My Comment: The title of this article mentions "Recession Looms". Duh! US GDP growth down to 0.6% in the 4th quarter! What do you call that??? The Recession has already arrived in the US...for goodness sake..start calling a spade a spade man.

Meredith Whitney fears $70bn carnage on monoliners

The high-profile banking analyst who triggered the resignation of Citigroup chairman Charles "Chuck" Prince is predicting investment banks will need to take further write-downs of $40bn (£20bn) to $70bn as a result of the current crisis in the bond insurance market.

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Ron Paul Goes to The Zoo

UK house-price slowdown deepens

The slide in the housing market gathered more pace last month, increasing speculation that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will cut interest rates at its meeting next week.

Mortgage approvals slumped to just 73,000, the lowest level since records began in 1999, accelerating the downward trend. Approvals dropped from 113,000 in June to 99,000 in September and 81,000 in November.

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You say you want a revolution?

Every movement in history has faced some time of testing, some experience that either forges it into something strong and unified, or forces it to fade away into the history books as another failed experiment.

Dr. Paul has written to you that we are heading straight for Super Tuesday. Our opponents are free to beat up on each other and wear themselves down while we gather our supporters and prepare to storm the convention with delegates.

Last night, over 60,000 people stood up and asked for an end to the runaway violation of our liberties. But contrary to the impression you may be getting from the mainstream media, no national delegates have yet been won in Florida. Those delegates will only be awarded between February 6 and April 30 at delegate selection caucuses, and many of those delegates will be supporters of Dr. Paul.

Ron Paul is the only candidate not to give up on any state in the Republican race, and just as we competed strongly in overlooked states like Nevada and Louisiana, so too will we compete in Maine, Minnesota, and other states that the so-called "top-tier" candidates are content to ignore.

Now, as the focus shifts to Super Tuesday, Rudy's campaign is crushed, Huckabee is losing momentum by the day, and McCain and Romney are fighting over who is the most liberal.
We've been here before. In 1776, despite a courageous effort at holding onto the city, George Washington ceded New York and quickly retreated to New Jersey.

1777 brought the British recapture of Fort Ticonderoga, as well as American defeats at Brandywine and Germantown.

And then, during the winter of 1777-1778, Washington and his army faced perhaps their most humiliating moment, forced to endure a harsh Pennsylvania winter with limited supplies at Valley Forge.

The American revolutionaries dealt with their defeats, focused on their goals, and emerged from Valley Forge as a force that would defeat the most powerful nation on earth.

Our momentum is building. Each one of us, from Dr. Paul himself down to the grassroots supporter who donates the last $5 he or she can give, is focused on the goal.

Early in the struggle for American independence, George Washington wrote: "Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages." Even then, Washington realized that a fierce struggle for self-government can only be won with a spirit of determination equal to the challenge.

Today, in the midst of our new revolution, let's consider Washington's words once again. The task before us is enormous. The foes of liberty are deeply entrenched, and they will not relinquish their power without a struggle.

But fighting in our favor is the unconquerable human spirit, the innate desire to be free. We must embrace this inner strength, dig in our heels, and persevere, just as Washington and his rag-tag colonials, the first American grassroots patriots, did before us. And if we must pass through a Valley Forge or two along the way to victory, let those times of testing temper the steel of our determination.

If Ron Paul is to continue his fight for liberty to the Republican Convention, we need your help in two critical ways:

1. Become a precinct leader today: It's easy, but more importantly, it's vital to Ron Paul's success: https://voters.ronpaul2008.com/.

2. Donate: Just as the Continental Congress supplied General Washington's troops in the field, we too must raise as much money as we can to equip our grassroots supporters.

Help us win this revolution and usher in a new era of freedom, peace, and prosperity. Donate today: https://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.

Matthew Hawes, Policy Assistant

Daniel McCarthy, Internet Communications Coordinator

Jonathan Bydlak, Fundraising DirectorRon Paul 2008

Bank Reserves Go Negative

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock

I have been watching a chart of Borrowed Bank Reserves for several weeks. The action is unprecedented.

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Why Is Bernanke Trying to Fight the Bear?

Last Tuesday, January 22, 2008, the US central bank lowered its federal funds rate target by a hefty 0.75% to 3.5%. The panicky decision to lower the fed funds rate target was made ahead of the Fed's meeting at the end of this month. Last Tuesday's cut by the Fed was the largest nonscheduled interest-rate cut in more than 20 years.

Let us say that the present aggressive interest rate stance by the Fed fails to prevent the economy from falling into a recession; what kind of action is Bernanke then going to undertake? In some of his writings, he has suggested that, under such circumstances, the Fed should adopt a very aggressive stance and start pushing money on a massive scale, i.e., helicopter money. Needless to say that if this were to happen, Bernanke would run the risk of badly damaging the foundations of the real economy.

FULL ARTICLE

Government Regulation vs Free Markets

Economic Outlook: More Darkening Clouds
by Dom Armentano

Every American, from the top Fortune 500 CEO to the youthful fast-food hamburger flipper, owes his standard of living – the highest in the world – to free market capitalism. It's capitalism – private property and free markets – that provides the information and the incentive that allows each of us to maximize the value of our economic activity. Yet to hear the (mostly) Democratic presidential candidates tell it, free markets are faulty, unfair, and inherently unstable; indeed, government should constantly regulate markets and ride to the rescue whenever recession threatens.

The overall economic ignorance displayed in this year's political campaign has been staggering. Instead of calling for balanced budgets, sound money, permanent tax reductions, and less regulation, most of the candidates have called for more inflation and more government intervention.

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Ron Paul KCPQ Fox Seattle Interview

The Sixty-Year Storm

by George Soros

Today’s financial crisis, triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble in the United States, also marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. It is a much bigger storm than any that has occurred since the end of World War II.

To understand what is happening, we need a new paradigm. It is available in the theory of reflexivity, which I first proposed 20 years ago in my book The Alchemy of Finance . The theory holds that financial markets do not tend towards equilibrium. Biased views and misconceptions among market participants introduce uncertainty and unpredictability not only into market prices, but also into the fundamentals that those prices are supposed to reflect. Left to their own devices, markets are prone to extremes of euphoria and despair.

Indeed, because of their potential instability, financial markets are not left to their own devices; they are in the charge of authorities whose job it is to keep the excesses within bounds. But the authorities are also human and subject to biased views and misconceptions. And the interaction between financial markets and financial authorities is also reflexive.

Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit, and always involve a bias or misconception – usually a failure to recognize a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. The recent US housing boom is a case in point.

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The Road to Hyperinflation - Part 2

Central Banking History of Failing to Stabilize Markets

It has been forgotten by many that before 1913, there was no central bank in the United States to bail out troubled commercial and associated financial institutions or to keep inflation in check by trading employment for price stability. Few want inflation but fewer still would trade their jobs for price stability.

For the first 137 years of its history, the US did not have a central bank. The nation then was plagued with recurring business cycles of boom and bust. For the past 94 years that the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, has assumed the role of monetary guardian for the nation, recurring business cycles of boom and bust have continued, often with the accommodating participation of the Fed. Central banking has failed in its fundamental functions of stabilizing financial markets with monetary policy, succeeding neither in preventing inflation nor sustaining growth nor achieving full employment. Since the Fed was founded in 1913, the US inflation has registered 1,923%, meaning prices have gone up 20 times on average despite a sharp rise inproductivity.

For the 18 years (August 11, 1987 to January 31, 2006) of his tenure as chairman of the Fed, Alan Greenspan had repeatedly bought off the collapse of one debt bubble with a bigger debt bubble. During that time, inflation was under 2% in only two years, 1998 and 2002, both times not caused by Fed policy. Paul Volcker, who served as Fed Chairman from August 1979 to August 1987, had to raise both the fed funds rate and the discount to 20% to fight hyperinflation of 18% in 1980 back down to 3.66% in 1987, the year Greenspan took over the Fed just before the October 1987 crash when inflation rose to 4.53%.Under Greenspan’s market accommodating monetary policy, US inflation reached 4.42% in 1988, 5.36% in 1989 and 6.29% in 1990. US inflation rate was moderated to 1.55% by the 1997 Asian financial crisis when Asian exporting economies devalued their currencies to lower their export prices, but Greenspan allowed US inflation rate to rise back to 3.76% by 2000. The fed funds rate hit a low of 1.75% in 2001 when inflation hit 3.76%; it hit 1% when inflation hit 3.52% in 2004; and it hit 2.5% when inflation hit 4.69% in 3005. For those years, US real interest rate was mostly negative after inflation. Factoring in the falling exchange value of the dollar, the Fed was in effect paying US transnational corporate borrowers to invest in non-dollar markets, and paying US financial institution to profit from dollar carry trade, i.e. borrowing dollars at negative rates to speculate in assets denominated in other currencies with high yields.

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The Great Depression - The Sequel ?

The D Bomb Is Dropped

It’s happened. One widely read financial daily very recently dropped the “D” bomb. The article compared today's economic situation not to the 1987 affair with a happy ending, but to the much “darker metaphor” of the Great Depression in 1929.

The main similarity, according to the article was this: The all-out rescue efforts of the financial powers-that-be to stop a downturn and push the economy onto solid ground. Then as now, two main bodies carry out the task: the central bank and the White House.

1929: The Federal Reserve promises “cheaper credit” and slashes the discount rate from 5.5% (1929) to .75% (1932). At the same time, U.S. President Herbert Hoover creates an “Economic Stimulus Plan” to provide $160 million in tax relief to the public.

2008: On January 22, the Federal Reserve approves an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut, the largest single reduction in 23 years (and fourth cut in four months). Days later, U.S. President George Bush encourages Congress to support a $150 billion “Economic Stimulus” through tax rebates.

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Merrill downgraded on bond insurers, subprime

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Oppenheimer & Co. on Wednesday downgraded shares of Merrill Lynch & Co. to underperform, saying bond insurers' problems could prompt more write-downs at the investment bank and noting the firm's exposure to subprime mortgages.

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UBS, BNP Paribas reveal fresh hits from credit crisis

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Two of Europe's largest banks revealed fresh problems stemming from the U.S. housing downturn Wednesday. Swiss banking giant UBS extended its latest write-down to $14 billion and France's BNP Paribas said its quarterly profit will slump over 40%.

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Forex Market Update - 29/01/2008 - FOMC Outlook (2)

FX Insights Moderator,

Just a quick update on some things as we head in to the FOMC...

My short @ 4794 was closed @ 4793 this morning and I've not re-entered the market with any new shorts and will not re-enter with any new shorts at this point... at least not until I see what the Fed does...

I only have 1 open short and that is at 4714 and I will keep this short open for the time being... my overal bias remains euro long -- cautiously long -- I'm not adding any new longs at these levels and not adding any trades at all this close to the rate decision...

This morning's GDP data can certainly lend some credence to the possibility of at least a 50bps cut, as GDP had slowed considerably during Q4 and is presently showing signs of complete stagnation during this first quarter of 2008.

I'd like to caution against jumping into the market as soon as the rate decision is released... we could see a pull back on the EUR/USD when the decision hits the wires...

The pull back can occur as banks are either taking losses, taking profits, and or adding new long positions, which will be based on exactly what the Fed comes out with today...

Sometimes it's best to wait between 4-12 minutes to get a feel for how the price action will play out and to see how the banks will decide to respond and move the market... just some food for thought on that...

Please practice extreme risk and money management today... do not make a knee jerk trade on any of the pairs, especially the yen crosses... formulate a gameplan and stay consistent during these potentially volatile days ahead...

FX Insights

The Failure of Inflation Targeting

By Axel Merk, January 30, 2008

Inflation targeting is yet to be formally adopted by the Federal Reserve (Fed), but recent market and Fed actions already prove that it is a failure. At the whim of trouble in the markets, Fed Chairman Bernanke has made it clear that he is inclined to flood the markets with liquidity at any cost; he said: “We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.”

Contrast that with John-Claude Trichet’s comments: the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) recently said that during times of financial turmoil, it is imperative that inflationary expectations remain firmly anchored. The Fed’s increasing isolation is also apparent from recent comments by Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England who said that investors had been mispricing risk for far too long and that “the repricing of that risk … is not a process that we should try to reverse.”

Let me be clear: we have no problem with a central bank to switch into emergency mode per se. But the way the Fed has wobbled into emergency mode, claiming to be vigilant on inflation while debasing the dollar in the process smells of hypocrisy. A central bank’s role is to keep the financial system running, not to run the financial system. Ben Bernanke has very clear views on how the financial system ought to be running. In February 2004, when he was freshly sworn in as a Fed Governor, Ben Bernanke published a report called “The Great Moderation.” In this report, he praised how monetary policy has contributed to a reduction in volatility of output and inflation since the mid 1980s. At first sight, it seems difficult to argue with such analysis; this work may have contributed to his appointment as President Bush’s Chief Economic Advisor, and subsequently to his current role as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

While we do not deny that low volatility has positive implications, where there is sunshine, there is shadow: in our assessment, the seeds of the current crisis have been planted in the process. Even if you are not an economics Ph.D., you may recall the saying “if there is one thing the market does not like, it is uncertainty.” The less uncertain the world is, the more daring speculators become. Homeowners believing their jobs are secure, or their wages will rise, are more likely to take out a high mortgage. Any speculator is willing to take out more leverage when the future seems certain. Financial institutions have become increasingly “sophisticated” over the past decade and introduced widely acclaimed Value At Risk (VaR) models; these models assess the risk of loss given different scenarios. Put simply, the less volatility, the less uncertainty there is, the more capital may be put at risk. In recent days, there has been talk that banks may require over hundred billion in additional capital should mortgage insurers be downgraded. That’s because the banks’ models suggest that less capital is required for assets classified as safe; however, if someone spoils the party and says the world is a risky place, banks suddenly have a greater portion of their capital at risk, requiring them to either sell off risky assets on their balance sheets, or to raise more capital.

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Forex Market Update - 29/01/2008 - FOMC Outlook

FX Insights Moderator,

Because of the Fed's emergency rate cut last week, the market analysts and economists have been thrown for a loop as to what Bernanke will pull out of his bag of tricks tomorrow... I will not offer any speculations on what Bernanke will do, but I've been preparing accordingly and have tried to position my accounts for the "worst case scenario.

"Now, the "worst case scenario" can certainly carry different meanings to different traders, but to me, whatever the Fed does tomorrow is the worst case scenario, of which I see three worst case scenarios... so, lets take a look at each one...

And just as an aside... you might be wondering why I have three possible worst case scenarios... well, as a trader, economist, and a taxpaying U.S. citizen, the only best case scenario for the U.S. economic situation is for the Fed to begin raising rates, for the gov't to begin reducing the deficit, and for our trade balance to shrink and our GDP to expand, but this is a different conversation for a different time...

Worst case scenario #1:

25bps interest rate cut -- a cut of just 25bps would be just half of what the market is forecasting, and this would be slightly shocking to all markets, including our market... the equities market will likely take a hit and not only see stock sell-offs, but would also see less money flow into stocks, which would turn the USD supportive against the EUR. I think the dollar would actually gain some ground back on the EUR should the Fed only cut by 25bps.

Worst case scenario #2:

50bps interest rate cut -- all markets are forecasting and expecting a full 50bps cut from the Fed. Should the Fed come through with what the markets want and expect, I believe the equities markets all around the world would react very favoribly to this move, more specifically, the Dow and S & P would respond with upward gains and momentum, which would then correlate into the EUR gaining against the USD. In addition, should the Fed cut by 50bps, the interest rate differentials would then turn into 100bps in favor of the euro vs. the dollar... this cut would bring the Fed's rate to 3.00% against the ECB's rate of 4.00%... I think it's quite significant to have a full 100bps interest rate differential between the EUR and the USD...

As you know, bank money flows to the nation that offers the higher rate of return, so I believe would could see renewed upward momentum and upward gains for the euro vs. the dollar. I really cannot imagine why banks would buy up dollars and sell-off euros with a 100bps interest rate differential... of course, we can't always depend on logic in the spot FX market, but the Eurozone now offers a better rate of return and it actually pays to hold euro longs, which is something traders look upon with favor.

Worst case scenario #3:

No interest rate cut -- yes, I absolutely believe there's a reasonable probability that the Fed will keep rates on hold tomorrow. I think it's a distinct possibility because of the emergency actions the Fed took last week... Bernanke's move, in my mind, diminishes some of the need to hack up rates any further tomorrow...

I believe a no cut would be tremendously supportive of the dollar vs. the euro... you see, concensus continues to grow that the ECB will eventually have to cut rates later this year and I am one of those that feels this way... M3 money supply is falling in the Eurozone and that will put less inflation pressure on the ECB... plus, I think we'll see the Eurozone's CPI come down from the highs of 3.1%, but lets not get off track here...

Should Bernanke hold rates steady, this would be a tremendous shock to all markets... our market does not handle shocking interest rate policy with any degree of emotional stability... a no cut could easily send the EUR/USD falling back to support levels between 1.45 and 1.43 in the near-term...

If the Fed were to hold rates tomorrow, global equity indicies would take a hit and I think we'd see some intense sell-offs and losses, which would naturally lead to the euro dropping against the dollar, due to the correlation between the EUR/USD, the Dow, the S&P/500, the S&P/500 and Dow futures, and the EUR/JPY (yes, the connection can run that deep). Then, we'd see traders begin to liquidate gold and oil positions, and possibly take short positions on those commodities to catch the down move, and those short positions in gold and oil would basically equate to taking long USD positions, which would then correlate into more USD support vs. the EUR...

A no cut would lead to some big, nasty crap hitting the fan in all markets, and ultimately I could see the dollar coming out of this smelling like a rose...

Fed psychology:

First, there's quite a bit of speculation that Bernanke made a knee-jerk reaction to last week's global equities sell-off, which was triggered by the nutjob trader from SocGen in France. So, to save face on his move to do an emergency rate cut Bernanke could certainly give the markets the 50bps cut they want, and this would be his way of saying, "last week's cut had nothing to do with the equities issues."

If Bernanke wants to send the markets the message that his biggest concerns are the U.S. economic situation and the issues within the credit markets and with the bond insurers/bond rating agencies, the FOMC will likely "vote" in favor of the 50bps cut. Of course, that cut will do zero to stimulate the economy nor will it offer much relief to the credit market and the banks, again, that's another issue for another time... but at least it would help Bernanke and the Fed save some face...

A 25bps cut or a no-cut could and probably would send our market the message that the Fed is growing more and more concerned with U.S. inflation and less concerned about what's happening on Wall St. This perceived concern about inflation would be very supportive of the dollar vs. the euro. You see, much of the euro's strength against the dollar is due to the fact that the ECB is so hell-bent on keeping inflation under 2%, which equates to tight monetary policy and hawkishness on interest rate policy...

The Fed and the ECB operate on opposite ends of the spectrum... Bernanke and his henchmen at the Fed are nothing more than subservient slaves to Wall St. and the trillion-dollar banking conglomerate that basically control governments and world markets, and because the U.S. still has the most powerful influence over the global markets and global economies, the subservient slaves at the Fed must do two things:

1. Manipulate markets

2. Price fix

Market manipulation and price fixing is accomplished through the Fed's monetary policy... if you want a good example of what price fixing is, look at what happened when Bernanke cut rates by 75bps last week... that move "fixed" prices on all of the equities markets and kept them from continuing to sell-off... I could give hundreds of examples, but you get the idea...

Now, the ECB has a totally different mission and mandate, which is ensuring price stability -- Trichet is almost to the point of being neurotic when it comes to inflation and price stability, but you have to understand why... the German Bundesbank is very influential, and Europeans, especially Germans still remember the days of having to cart in heaps of cash to buy milk and bread... so because the ECB is coming from that angle, they are naturally going to be very tight on monetary policy and less likely to ease on rates even when growth begins to suffer, which is and will be the case this year... so as I said earlier, this is one of the main reasons why the euro has been so strong against the dollar for the past few years...

EUR/USD trading:

All possible scenarios for what could happen are stated above... now, how this translates into trading is a different story because no one truly knows what the Fed is going to slap us with tomorrow...

On last Friday's and this Sunday's updates, we gave the key level, on the downside of 4680 - 4660... it hit 4660 right on the dot on Sunday and has since move towards the top of the range, but unable to breach the 4800 level...

Clearly the market has fallen into a "wait and see" trading range because the banks are speculating just as much as the rest of us and will likely need to see what the Fed decides tomorrow...

It would not surprise me to see some movement out of this range as we draw closer to tomorrow's decision... don't forget that we have key GDP data tomorrow morning, plus, some banks may try to square positions ahead of the FOMC decision and these money flows could cause some movement...

As far as trading goes, I grabbed a 4794 euro short yesterday and will certainly hold this trade, unless of course the market moves against me, in which case the trade will be closed for +1 pips and I may look to re-enter short at a higher position...

On the long side, I am still long from 4385 and will hold all longs that are still in profit below the 4700 level... other than that, I've spent this week trying to flatten out and free up margin just to protect against the unknowns... this is not a situation where I really want to get caught going the wrong way because tomorrow could be monumental...

I'd really like to grab some better euro shorts should the market go up and give an opportunity to do so... as mentioned above, I think in the end of all this the dollar could come out smelling like a rose, even though fundamentally and logically it shouldn't be that way...

I encourage you to do your own analysis of the market and weigh each possibility against the other... I could be way out in left field, but I wanted to at least give you my view on things...

FX Insights

The Future Imperfect?

Waving Goodbye to Hegemony

By Parag Khanna

Turn on the TV today, and you could be forgiven for thinking it’s 1999. Democrats and Republicans are bickering about where and how to intervene, whether to do it alone or with allies and what kind of world America should lead. Democrats believe they can hit a reset button, and Republicans believe muscular moralism is the way to go. It’s as if the first decade of the 21st century didn’t happen — and almost as if history itself doesn’t happen. But the distribution of power in the world has fundamentally altered over the two presidential terms of George W. Bush, both because of his policies and, more significant, despite them. Maybe the best way to understand how quickly history happens is to look just a bit ahead.

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The Business of Walking Away

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Previously I discussed the psychology of walking away in 60 Minutes Legitimizes Walking Away, Changing Social Attitudes About Debt, and a Crash Course For Bernanke.

This post will address the business of walking away.

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Inflation Warning

The Financial Times reports the following story:

IMF head in shock fiscal warning

The intensifying credit crunch is so severe that lower interest rates alone will not be enough “to get out of the turmoil we are in”, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned at the weekend.

In a dramatic volte face for an international body that as recently as the autumn called for “continued fiscal consolidation” in the US, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the new IMF head, gave a green light for the proposed US fiscal stimulus package and called for other countries to follow suit. “I don’t think we would get rid of the crisis with just monetary tools,” he said, adding “a new fiscal policy is probably today an accurate way to answer the crisis”.

My comment: The "shocking" part for me in this article is that the IMF MD is calling for defecit spending, interest rate cuts and more monetary inflation. This is what got the global economic landscape into the trouble it is in today! Watch your local Central Bank for rate cuts when it is actually supposed to be increasing rates. Deja vu anyone?

It's like a Doctor prescribing IcyHot/Deep Heat for Jock-Itch !

Zimbabwe Economics

by Bill Bonner

Bill Clinton should have gone to the Alps. Instead, the poor man went to the piedmont...to the aid of his wife in South Carolina.

At the annual Davos, Switzerland, conference of celebs, power-brokers, and do-gooders, Clinton was always a hit. In Carolina, he was a flop.

If he’d been in Davos, he might have given the meeting some of the magic of the old days. Every year, the movers and shakers gather to tell each other how to make a better world. Most just blather in a way that began naïvely, early in their careers, soured into cynicism in middle age, and finally becomes merely stupid. Some probably still think they can improve things. A few probably succeed.

But this year’s meeting seems to have had a defeatist tone to it. Probably because the news was bad.

Last Sunday, it was discovered that a young man at an old bank had managed to get himself into $50 billion worth of positions – most of them losing positions. This was more than half of the value of all of France’s gold and currency reserves. It was more than the entire value that had been built up by the bank over decades. How could it happen? What was wrong? How could banks be so fragile...and what could you think of the whole world’s financial system when it was built with bricks that cracked up so readily?

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War vs. Peace

By Lew Rockwell,

There are many reasons why Ron Paul is a great hero, from his leadership against the recession-causing Fed to his opposition to income-tax theft. But this illustration, and thanks to David Kramer for sending it, sums up the most important reason we love and admire Ron, and despise his neocon opponents.

Money and the Economic Crisis

Money: Pathology and Reality

Recent daily articles on Mises.org and LewRockwell.com have addressed the economic downturn, and the unbearably bad response from Washington and the Fed. These people have learned all the wrong lessons from the Great Depression. There is nothing that the planners won't consider at this point: wage and price controls, floods of new money, exchange controls, protectionism, hundreds of billions in public works – you name it.

The good news is that all the literature necessary to combat this nonsense is in print. The Austrian perspective is there to make sense of the current economic mess.

HERE ARE ALL THE RECOMMEND BOOKS

(NB: I'll be making an effort to add as many of these books listed to my list of E-Books, which can be downloaded in PDF format) Note: DONE !!! :-)

Economic Stimulus Concerns

By Ron Paul,

This past week in Washington there has been much talk about the economy. It seems by their actions the leadership and the Fed is finally willing to admit we have a problem, and we need to do something about the economic mess we are in. This is a good thing. However, they are still not being honest about the root cause of our impending crisis and want to deal only with symptoms, not the disease.

There are some positive aspects of the highly lauded economic stimulus package that has been negotiated. I am in favor of taxpayers getting some of their money back, however temporary tax cuts and one-time rebates will not “fix” the economy. What we desperately need right now is real deep significant tax cuts that are enabled by big spending cuts and reduction of government waste that is so rampant. Unfortunately, too many in Washington still believe we can spend our way into prosperity, which does not work and never has.

Countries build wealth through robust economic environments, in which jobs are created and businesses can operate at a profit and grow. When taxes bleed away profits and burdensome regulation hamstrings operations, our businesses and our jobs go overseas. The United States must foster a competitive business environment once again.

There are a few ideas out there for economic stimulus that I do support, such as making permanent President Bush’s tax cuts. I have also signed on as one of 49 original cosponsors of the Economic Growth Act of 2008 which will provide actual economic stimulus through private sector tax relief and job-creating business incentives. This plan features :

• Full immediate expensing for major business asset investments
  


• Reducing the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% to be aligned with average rates in Europe
  


• Indexing the capital gains tax for inflation
  


• Cutting and simplifying the corporate capital gains rate
  
  

Enactment of these dramatic tax cuts will free up money so employers can start hiring again. I would like for the unemployed to have the satisfaction of having a job again so the standard of living of the American family will go up. And even more than a one-time miniscule rebate check, I want you to keep more of your own money in the first place.

Sending out checks and cutting interest rates yet again is merely a shot in the arm when in actuality, the economy needs major surgery. I look forward to working with my colleagues in Congress to provide major tax relief to the American people.

What You Should Know About Inflation

I have added "What You Should Know About Inflation" by Henry Hazlitt to the list of Educational Economic E-Books, which you can download in PDF format.

Just right-click on the link and "Save Target As..."

A quick overview of the book and what it's about:

The book's title—What You Should Know About Inflation—only hints at the extent of the issues that Hazlitt addresses. He presents the Austrian theory of money in the clearest possible terms, and contrasts it with the fallacies of government management. He takes on not only the Keynesians but also the monetarists, as well as anyone who believes that government debt accumulation and manipulation of interest rates are harmless.


So this book is about far more than inflation. He touches on a wide variety of macroeconomic topics, any area of economic policy that is related to the monetary regime, including budget and trade issues, as well has the economic history of inflation.


Neither does he neglect the moral cost of inflation:


It is not merely that inflation breeds dishonesty in a nation. Inflation is itself a dishonest act on the part of government, and sets the example for private citizens. When modern governments inflate by increasing the paper-money supply, directly or indirectly, they do in principle what kings once did when they clipped coins. Diluting the money supply with paper is the moral equivalent of diluting the milk supply with water. Notwithstanding all the pious pretenses of governments that inflation is some evil visitation from without, inflation is practically always the result of deliberate governmental policy.


Particularly interesting is the final section of the book in which Hazlitt critiques various proposals for monetary reform and then presents his view.


What is Hazlitt's own idea for monetary reform? He wants competitive monies, which he believes will be based in precious metal. He doesn't demand that governments get out of the monetary business altogether but merely that government permit everyone to choose to use any money and make any form of contract.


Hazlitt lays out a scenario that he believes will lead to a 100 percent gold standard rooted in private coinage. In effect, he argues that private markets can do for money what private services have done to a whole host of government ones: outcompete and displace them. It is a challenging thesis, particularly because it doesn't depend on any reform other than freeing the market.

• What Inflation is
• Some Qualifications
• Some Popular Fallacies
• A Twenty-Year Record
• False Remedy: Price Fixing
• The Cure for Inflation
• Inflation Has Two Faces
• What 'Monetary Management' Means
• Gold Goes With Inflation
• In Dispraise of PAper
• The Cure for Inflation
• Inflation and High Costs
• Is Inflation a Blessing?
• Why Return to Gold
• Gold Means Good Faith
• What Price for Gold?
• The Dollar-Gold Ratio
• Lessons of the Greenbacks
• The Black Market Test
• How to Return to Gold
• Some Errors of Inflationists
• Selective Credit Control
• Must We Ration Credit?
• Money and Goods
• The Great Swindle
• Easy Money = Inflation
• Cost-Push Inflation?
• Contradictory Goals
• Administered Inflation
• Easy Money has an End
• Can Inflation Merely Creep?
• How to Wipe Out Debt
• The Cost-Price Squeeze
• The Employment Act of 1946
• Inflate? Or Adjust?
• Deficits vs. Jobs
• Why Cheap Money Fails
• How to Control Credit
• Who Makes Inflation?
• Inflation as a Policy
• The Open Conspiracy
• How the Spiral Spins
• Inflation vs. Morality
• How Can You Beat Inflation?
• The ABC of Inflation

You can also purchase the paperback version here.

Enjoy!!!

The great fiscal stimulus package ... of 1929

Stephen W. Carson

Is the myth of the "do nothing" Herbert Hoover dying? Michael Kitchen at MarketWatch writes:

...Herbert Hoover -- only nine months into his presidency -- assembled leaders from the public and private sectors to create an economic-stimulus package. Among the measures, Time magazine reported at the time, was a promise from Congress to offer bipartisan support for a tax-cut package. The proposal called for $160 million in tax relief -- only about $22 billion if adjusted against the gross domestic product at the time, and therefore much smaller than the plan under consideration here in 2008. Read Time's original coverage of the plan.

Also on the table was an assurance from the Federal Reserve that it would provide cheaper credit.

Has someone been reading Rothbard? [Thanks Digg]

Ron Paul... Dirty Secrets from the Past !