Rage Against the Tube

The Plug-in Drug

by Mike (in Tokyo) Rogers

All parents, or soon to be parents, need to read The Plug-In Drug by Marie Winn. It is a book that explains how television is destroying our children and our families.

I have been a professional in the television and radio industry for over 30 years. I work for a company that makes nationally broadcasted programming here in Japan and we often work with the TV Tokyo network, NHK, and nationally broadcasted radio. I also have the experience of being one of the few people who has ever gone to drug rehabilitation and successfully recovered (96% of all drug addicts who enter rehab will return to drug rehab – I have never returned, nor have I needed to – thanks to my wife.)

The Plug-In Drug is a wonderfully insightful book with excellent ideas. The only problem I had with it was a small bit of a seeming compromise by the author on the issue of controlling TV watching time. I think the writer does this because she knows that a "No TV life" is a concept that is too alien in our society today and that the parents would be too adverse to the idea of throwing out the box. Unfortunately, it is the parents who need the TV more than the children. The parents use TV as a babysitter and that, in turn, gets the children hooked. I can tell you from experience that there is no practical solution to trying to control TV watching. The only practical and successful method for controlling TV is to throw the set out. Even though I work in TV, we do not have a TV set in our house.

Imagine a drug addict only doing heroin "just for a few hours a day." It won't work. They will backslide. The only realistic and practical solution is total abstinence and the only way to do this is by eliminating the device.

The TV is actually a drug. But its dangers are even worse than anyone suspects. Married couples think, "Without a TV, my husband and I would have nothing to talk about" (I've heard this many times) but these people have it backwards. Because they have a TV, the couples don't talk about important things and make the effort at spiritual growth (no I'm not talking about religion). The Plug-In Drug should be an advocate for "The TV-Free Family."

People always say that they love their children and that they will do anything for them. But, for the most part, and from what I've seen, it's not true. There is one thing that they will not do for their children: They haven't the courage to throw the TV out.

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FMM Comment: I agree wholehartedly with this article. Trash that $%^& Tube !!!

Dow Jones Musical Chairs

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With Altria Group Inc. and Honeywell International Inc. booted out, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now getting a little less industrial and a little more oriented financial and oil, with Bank of America Corp. and Chevron Corp. joining the world-famous blue-chip index.

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FMM Comment: Nadeem Walayat made the following point in his article:

"Don't Bet Against the Dow!".

"Investors should realise one important factor about the Dow 30 stock market index and other similar general multi-sector indices that are made up of a limited number of stocks. The Indices are designed to exhibit the long-term inflationary growth spirals. In that in the long-run the indices will always move to a new high! "

Beware the smoke and mirrors!

FX Insights EUR/USD Calendar 2/10 thru 2/15 (with commentary)

By FX Insights Moderator,

For this trade week we have a four-headed beast to do battle with:

1. U.S. & European Growth Fundamentals
2. Equities
3. Securities
4. Central Bankers

Lets start with number one and work our way down as we try to devise our battle plan for the week ahead...

Fundamental Data:

Last week we saw the market take the EUR/USD down 200 pips twice... this is not a common occurance and something to take note of as we prepare for this week...

On Friday some dude from OPEC talked about denominating oil out of dollars and into euros, which caused that spike in the late afternoon... where did we bounce? At 4550. And if you remember last week we told you several times that the 4550 level is a key level to either keep us pushing lower lows or to allow the euro to make a recovery... we'll talk more about key levels later, though...

As far as this week's fundamentals go, the reason why it's such a critical week is because the market is so intensely focused on Europe's growth situation... the market is looking for any and all signs that growth is destabilizing, that it's weakening, and whether or not this weakness will be enough for the ECB to cut rates soon...

Monday -- key Eurozone growth data by way of French and Italian industrial production data. Forecasts show some recovery there from the previous data release... I'm not quite of this opinion...

Tuesday -- ZEW... I think in the ZEW data we'll see further deterioration of Europe's investor sentiment because of weakening economic conditions... the signs of this weakening sentiment have been there for several months and I believe it's not playing out right before our eyes...

If European investors continue growing wary of economic and financial conditions in the Eurozone this could likely lead to safe-haven buying of bonds, which would negatively impact the value of the euro against the dollar... just something to keep in mind.

Wednesday -- things pick-up on Wednesday... the two biggest pieces of data is the Eurozone Industrial Production number and the U.S. Core Retail Sales... I expect both pieces of data to disappoint to the downside, which will only further confuse the markets... there's really been no sign of much recovery in the U.S. retail sector... my research shows consumers are continuing to tighten their purse strings.

U.S. consumer credit is way down! Consumers are not borrowing either because they can't get a loan, they are loaded with debt and have nothing else to borrow with, they are out of a job, they are about to get their home foreclosed on, they are scared to take on new debt, or a combination of any or all of the above... it's a very tough situation and these factors are certainly weighing heavy on U.S. retailers.

Thursday -- this is where we really get a look at the growth situation in Europe as we get German, French, and Eurozone GDP data... I believe we'll see growth contracting from the previous month in this GDP data, which will not be EUR supportive at all...

Later in the morning we get the U.S. Trade Balance which seriously needs some help... the USD's continued weakness and worthlesness should help the Trade Balance and I'm expecting the data to be USD supportive...

Initial Claims has been quite weak all year long and I see no reason why we're going to get an upside surprise on Thursday... layoffs are continuing and there's no signs of this slowing...

The other keys for Thursday are speeches by Bernanke and Trichet... Bernanke is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee and he's scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy... the market will be listening intently to both Bernanke and Trichet for any clues and signs on interest rate policy and growth outlook...

Friday -- tons of data on Friday... most of Friday's data is USD-related... growth, inflation, foreign investments, industrial output, and consumer sentiment... is that enough for you for one day?

I'm going to reserve any commentary on Friday's data for later on this week in the Trade Team updates as I've got much more research to do on what Friday holds...

Lets move on to equities now...

Equities:

Equities is the second head of our four-headed beast we're going to do battle with this week...

I believe the correlation between the Dow, S&P/500 and the EUR/USD will stay in play this week... equities are in a precarious spot right now... have they hit a bottom? Is there more room down to go? Investors will be trying to figure this out...

The way I see it, it's pretty simple... should the equities markets make a recovery this week and see some upward momentum and upward gains, I think this will be highly supportive of the EUR against the USD...

If money flows out of equities again this week, this will likely keep the USD pressure on the EUR... I'm not an equities expert nor do I trade them, so I can't predict what those markets will do this week, but I do know how those moves can effect the EUR/USD, so I'll certainly be watching very closely...

Securities:

Have you been watching U.S. bond yields lately? If not, you might want to this week... the 10-year yield in particular has made a roaring comeback from its lows in the 3.30's... on Friday the 10-year yield closed at 3.65%... if the bond yields keep rising, this should keep the USD supported against the EUR...

Central Bankers:

For most of the week, the Fed's henchmen will be on the speaker's circuit... the market will be listening for any clues on further Fed cuts or to see if the Fed is going to start getting hawkish on inflation and scale back the talk of keeping more cuts on the table...

Same goes with the ECB and Trichet... is Trichet going to stay dovish the next few months? Is he going to signal rate cuts? The markets will be watching and listening all week...

Over the weekend the ECB's Almunia talked about concerns over the euro's strength...

Of course we had the G7 meeting with the central bankers... I've already posted the key points from this meeting, so please take a look at that info... I expect we'll see some fallout in the market from this G7 meeting...

EUR/USD Trading:

As far as trading goes, I'm not heavy short nor am I heavy long... we're close to that key 4550 level... I believe in order for the euro to make a recovery, it's going to need to sustain a break above 4550...

If the euro stays below the 4550 level, it keeps the doors open for more downside testing and correcting... other key downside levels are the 4440 are and the 4380-4360 area...

I remain overal biased to more downside testing, but as I said, I'm not loading the boat with shorts and I'm playing the shortside extremely tight and cautiously because I know this week's fundamentals and those other variables we talked about could easily send the EUR/USD back up toward the 4750 level...

Best advice is to look for those relatively safe intraday trade opportunities, using 1% or 2% entries, taking a few pips per trade, and mitigating your risk during these times of uncertainty and no clear directions...

As we did last week, we'll look for some high probability live trade calls to put in the chat, but only if the opportunity for a lower-risk trade presents itself to the Trade Team...

There's a few posts you'll want to take a moment to read:

The Yen -- the market's untamed beast

Our 1-year anniversary message

FXI's Fundamental Test Part II

That should take care of things for now... again, practice strict risk and money management as we have a potentially volatile and crazy week ahead... each and every day this week holds heightened potential for volatility and price swings...

-FX Insights

EURUSD Financials 2-10-08 thru 2-15-08.xls

The Trouble With Child Labor Laws

Productive work imparts glorious lessons in life. What lesson do we impart with child-labor laws? We establish early on who is in charge: not individuals, not parents, but the state. We tell the youth that they are better off being mall rats than fruitful workers. We tell them that they have nothing to offer society until they are 18 or so.

We convey the impression that work is a form of exploitation from which they must be protected. We drive a huge social wedge between parents and children and lead kids to believe that they have nothing to learn from their parents' experience. We rob them of what might otherwise be the most valuable early experiences of their young adulthood.

In the end, the most compelling case for getting rid of child-labor laws comes down to one central issue: the freedom to make a choice.

FULL ARTICLE