Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Forex Market Update - 29/01/2008 - FOMC Outlook (2)



FX Insights Moderator,

Just a quick update on some things as we head in to the FOMC...

My short @ 4794 was closed @ 4793 this morning and I've not re-entered the market with any new shorts and will not re-enter with any new shorts at this point... at least not until I see what the Fed does...

I only have 1 open short and that is at 4714 and I will keep this short open for the time being... my overal bias remains euro long -- cautiously long -- I'm not adding any new longs at these levels and not adding any trades at all this close to the rate decision...

This morning's GDP data can certainly lend some credence to the possibility of at least a 50bps cut, as GDP had slowed considerably during Q4 and is presently showing signs of complete stagnation during this first quarter of 2008.

I'd like to caution against jumping into the market as soon as the rate decision is released... we could see a pull back on the EUR/USD when the decision hits the wires...

The pull back can occur as banks are either taking losses, taking profits, and or adding new long positions, which will be based on exactly what the Fed comes out with today...

Sometimes it's best to wait between 4-12 minutes to get a feel for how the price action will play out and to see how the banks will decide to respond and move the market... just some food for thought on that...

Please practice extreme risk and money management today... do not make a knee jerk trade on any of the pairs, especially the yen crosses... formulate a gameplan and stay consistent during these potentially volatile days ahead...

FX Insights

No comments: