By Bill Bonner
"One part slump…one part inflation…and one part who-knows-what. Of course, the feds are eager to put more inflation into the brew. If they had their druthers, the concoction would have more of a kick - with more exciting price increases and less depressing slump."
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Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Friday, February 15, 2008
The Frightful Face of Stimulus
Among businesspeople, bankers, and investors, there is a growing fear that the economy is headed towards recession or already in one. But that alone is not the source of worry. After all, an economy if left alone to function in freedom can recover. The real problem has to do with the political response. There is every indication that no matter who comes to be in charge in November, we face a future of massive spending, inflating, and regulating.
And here is the real danger. One only needs to look at such preposterous measures as the "stimulus package" that congress passed to much fanfare. Dumping money into consumers' hands, drawn from wherever they can get it, is the only means these guys can dream up to shore up prosperity. That only proves that they don't know what brings about prosperity in the first place, which is not congress but free enterprise.
Economist Robert Higgs compares a "stimulus package" to getting water out of the deep end of the swimming pool and dumping in the shallow end – all with the expectation that the water level will rise. As he emphasizes, economists should never tire of asking where the money for stimulus is going to come from. Mankind has yet to invent a machine to create it out of nothing: it's either taxing, inflating, or going into debt that has to be paid later (and crowds out capital creation now). There is no other way.
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Thursday, February 14, 2008
Dow Jones Musical Chairs - Part 2
I discussed the chopping and changes made on the Dow in Dow Jones Musical Chairs
Mark Hulbert at Marketwatch touches on the same issue: What happens to Stocks added and deleted form the Dow?
Therefore, to follow the Dow's moves is not a very good way to track the performance of the US stock market.
I suggest you rather monitor the Willshire 5000 index, which represents the broadest index for the U.S. equity market. This should give you a better indication of where the market is heading.
Mark Hulbert at Marketwatch touches on the same issue: What happens to Stocks added and deleted form the Dow?
According to Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback's Fund Forecaster, the Dow would today be more than twice its quoted level had IBM not been removed in 1939.
Are these examples typical of all changes made over the past 110 years? I don't know, since I have not gone back and calculated the returns of all stocks that were added or deleted to the Dow subsequent to its creation in 1896. But I wouldn't be surprised if the average deleted stock has outperformed the average addition.
That's because companies that are added often are coming off a period of dynamic growth. A company that is substantially out of favor typically does not get added. This skews the Dow towards the large-cap growth sector of the market, which historically has underperformed smaller stocks and issues that are closer to the value end of the value-growth spectrum.
Therefore, to follow the Dow's moves is not a very good way to track the performance of the US stock market.
I suggest you rather monitor the Willshire 5000 index, which represents the broadest index for the U.S. equity market. This should give you a better indication of where the market is heading.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Words from the (Investment) Wise
by Prieur du Plessis
The past week witnessed a turnaround in sentiment as renewed recession fears dominated investors' actions. Stock markets across the globe were subjected to selling pressure, while credit spreads scaled new highs. "What the market giveth [the previous week], it also taketh away [last week]," was Briefing.com's very apt description of events.
A particularly weak ISM Services report and the specter of bond insurer downgrades further reignited recession concerns, and reminded pundits of the words of Lily Tomlin, the American comedian: "Things are going to get a lot worse before they are going to get worse."
Randall Forsythe of Barron's offered the following commentary: "The Mardi Gras that's lasted four decades for the American consumer is drawing to an end, if it is not already over. After Fat Tuesday comes Ash Wednesday, which is observed today, and is the beginning of Lent, a 40-day period of fasting, self-examination and renewal for Christians, analogous to Ramadan for Muslims or Yom Kippur for Jews. Lower interest rates are a palliative, not a cure, for the economy's woes. Time is the only healer. Economists call that time a recession, and it can no longer be avoided."
Before highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators, let's briefly review the financial markets' movements on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.
Read the rest
The past week witnessed a turnaround in sentiment as renewed recession fears dominated investors' actions. Stock markets across the globe were subjected to selling pressure, while credit spreads scaled new highs. "What the market giveth [the previous week], it also taketh away [last week]," was Briefing.com's very apt description of events.
A particularly weak ISM Services report and the specter of bond insurer downgrades further reignited recession concerns, and reminded pundits of the words of Lily Tomlin, the American comedian: "Things are going to get a lot worse before they are going to get worse."
Randall Forsythe of Barron's offered the following commentary: "The Mardi Gras that's lasted four decades for the American consumer is drawing to an end, if it is not already over. After Fat Tuesday comes Ash Wednesday, which is observed today, and is the beginning of Lent, a 40-day period of fasting, self-examination and renewal for Christians, analogous to Ramadan for Muslims or Yom Kippur for Jews. Lower interest rates are a palliative, not a cure, for the economy's woes. Time is the only healer. Economists call that time a recession, and it can no longer be avoided."
Before highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators, let's briefly review the financial markets' movements on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.
Read the rest
The drumbeat of Weak Economic Numbers
Ugly retail sales on tap, and more from Bernanke
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The drumbeat of weak economic numbers will likely continue this coming week, topped by awful retail sales figures and depressed consumer sentiment readings.
As if that weren't enough, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will trudge to Capitol Hill again, along with the rest of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. The PPT), to explain to senators just why the financial markets aren't working.
Risks abound in both the numbers and in the testimony.
FMM Comment: I'm looking forward to Ron Paul boxing Ben's ears again. Is Ben dragging the PPT along as bodyguards?
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Monday, February 4, 2008
The Big Credit Squeeze
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Banks are putting a stranglehold on credit, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.
Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the 17-year history of the Fed's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, the Fed said.
Plain-vanilla business loans were also much harder to obtain, the Fed said.
Banks expect more delinquencies and charge offs for most types of loans to consumers and businesses, the survey said. Banks said they were tightening their lending standards in response to weaker economy, reduced tolerance of risk, and decreased liquidity in secondary markets.
The survey backs up the Federal Open Market Committee's comments last week that credit conditions had tightened considerably, a factor that led to the FOMC to slash interest rates by an unprecedented 125 basis points in two weeks.
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FMM Comment: Three things are happening here.
Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the 17-year history of the Fed's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, the Fed said.
Plain-vanilla business loans were also much harder to obtain, the Fed said.
Banks expect more delinquencies and charge offs for most types of loans to consumers and businesses, the survey said. Banks said they were tightening their lending standards in response to weaker economy, reduced tolerance of risk, and decreased liquidity in secondary markets.
The survey backs up the Federal Open Market Committee's comments last week that credit conditions had tightened considerably, a factor that led to the FOMC to slash interest rates by an unprecedented 125 basis points in two weeks.
Read The Rest
FMM Comment: Three things are happening here.
- Banks are hoarding cash because Bank Reserves Go Negative
- People can't or don't want to borrow
- Banks can't or don't want to lend
Something the Fed can NOT do is force people to borrow. It can only sweeten the deal with low rates. So, if you are struggling to either inhale or exhale, you are suffocating, like the credit markets are doing now. It is just a matter of time, unless some "miracle" happens, before the credit market will turn blue in the face and collapse. And that, is called Deflation.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Stagflation dilemma haunts euro
But other analysts say European growth worries are premature
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to the threat of stagflation, the European Central Bank has appeared much more worried about the inflation portion of that dreaded compound word than signs of a stagnating economy.
But some foreign exchange analysts say Thursday's muted reaction by foreign-exchange and fixed-income markets to another round of troubling euro zone inflation data increased the likelihood that policymakers may soon pay more heed to signs of slowing European growth.
Stagflation describes a period of low or negative growth and high price inflation. Signs of the latter have been evident for a while, and more evidence emerged Thursday.
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to the threat of stagflation, the European Central Bank has appeared much more worried about the inflation portion of that dreaded compound word than signs of a stagnating economy.
But some foreign exchange analysts say Thursday's muted reaction by foreign-exchange and fixed-income markets to another round of troubling euro zone inflation data increased the likelihood that policymakers may soon pay more heed to signs of slowing European growth.
Stagflation describes a period of low or negative growth and high price inflation. Signs of the latter have been evident for a while, and more evidence emerged Thursday.
Jobless claims surge, spending softens
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of workers filing new claims for jobless aid surged last week to the highest since October 2005, and consumer spending softened at the end of last year, according to reports on Thursday that heightened worries about a possible recession.
The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 69,000 last week to 375,000. It was the biggest jump since September 2005 and the highest since October of that year, just after Hurricane Katrina devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Separately, the Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up by 0.2 percent in December after a 1 percent gain in November, just enough to keep pace with inflation.
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The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 69,000 last week to 375,000. It was the biggest jump since September 2005 and the highest since October of that year, just after Hurricane Katrina devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Separately, the Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up by 0.2 percent in December after a 1 percent gain in November, just enough to keep pace with inflation.
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Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The Future Imperfect?
Waving Goodbye to Hegemony
By Parag Khanna
Turn on the TV today, and you could be forgiven for thinking it’s 1999. Democrats and Republicans are bickering about where and how to intervene, whether to do it alone or with allies and what kind of world America should lead. Democrats believe they can hit a reset button, and Republicans believe muscular moralism is the way to go. It’s as if the first decade of the 21st century didn’t happen — and almost as if history itself doesn’t happen. But the distribution of power in the world has fundamentally altered over the two presidential terms of George W. Bush, both because of his policies and, more significant, despite them. Maybe the best way to understand how quickly history happens is to look just a bit ahead.
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Economic Stimulus Concerns
By Ron Paul,This past week in Washington there has been much talk about the economy. It seems by their actions the leadership and the Fed is finally willing to admit we have a problem, and we need to do something about the economic mess we are in. This is a good thing. However, they are still not being honest about the root cause of our impending crisis and want to deal only with symptoms, not the disease.
There are some positive aspects of the highly lauded economic stimulus package that has been negotiated. I am in favor of taxpayers getting some of their money back, however temporary tax cuts and one-time rebates will not “fix” the economy. What we desperately need right now is real deep significant tax cuts that are enabled by big spending cuts and reduction of government waste that is so rampant. Unfortunately, too many in Washington still believe we can spend our way into prosperity, which does not work and never has.
Countries build wealth through robust economic environments, in which jobs are created and businesses can operate at a profit and grow. When taxes bleed away profits and burdensome regulation hamstrings operations, our businesses and our jobs go overseas. The United States must foster a competitive business environment once again.
There are a few ideas out there for economic stimulus that I do support, such as making permanent President Bush’s tax cuts. I have also signed on as one of 49 original cosponsors of the Economic Growth Act of 2008 which will provide actual economic stimulus through private sector tax relief and job-creating business incentives. This plan features :
There are some positive aspects of the highly lauded economic stimulus package that has been negotiated. I am in favor of taxpayers getting some of their money back, however temporary tax cuts and one-time rebates will not “fix” the economy. What we desperately need right now is real deep significant tax cuts that are enabled by big spending cuts and reduction of government waste that is so rampant. Unfortunately, too many in Washington still believe we can spend our way into prosperity, which does not work and never has.
Countries build wealth through robust economic environments, in which jobs are created and businesses can operate at a profit and grow. When taxes bleed away profits and burdensome regulation hamstrings operations, our businesses and our jobs go overseas. The United States must foster a competitive business environment once again.
There are a few ideas out there for economic stimulus that I do support, such as making permanent President Bush’s tax cuts. I have also signed on as one of 49 original cosponsors of the Economic Growth Act of 2008 which will provide actual economic stimulus through private sector tax relief and job-creating business incentives. This plan features :
- Full immediate expensing for major business asset investments
- Reducing the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% to be aligned with average rates in Europe
- Indexing the capital gains tax for inflation
- Cutting and simplifying the corporate capital gains rate
Enactment of these dramatic tax cuts will free up money so employers can start hiring again. I would like for the unemployed to have the satisfaction of having a job again so the standard of living of the American family will go up. And even more than a one-time miniscule rebate check, I want you to keep more of your own money in the first place.
Sending out checks and cutting interest rates yet again is merely a shot in the arm when in actuality, the economy needs major surgery. I look forward to working with my colleagues in Congress to provide major tax relief to the American people.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Financial crisis could cost London 20,000 jobs
By Jonathan Russell,
As many as 20,000 City jobs are likely to be wiped out by the financial crisis, according to one of the first comprehensive forecasts of the toll on London's economy.
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As many as 20,000 City jobs are likely to be wiped out by the financial crisis, according to one of the first comprehensive forecasts of the toll on London's economy.
READ THE REST
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