FXI EUR/USD Calendar 2/3 thru 2/8 2008 (with commentary)

By FX Insights Moderator,

Before we dig into this week's fundamentals and market outlook, I want to talk about last Friday's NFP...

As we indicated in Friday's update, last month's NFP data was revised up, the unemployment rate, however, was knocked back below 5.0%, which was opposite of my forecast... with new and continuing jobless claims and vastly diminished new hiring, it's very difficult to understand why the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%...

We also indicated, we'd see downward pressure on the EUR/USD, which certainly played out Friday, but to a slightly greater degree than I had anticipated... as we stated in the update, though, I still believe the EUR/USD has the potential to re-test the top of the range...

NFP showed a net loss of 17K jobs, which is certainly dismal, but lets keep one fact in mind -- of all the months in the year, January typically shows the biggest decline in new jobs and this is because of the BLS's birth/death model... so, I'm sure we can expect another upward revision next month...

Friday was a great example of why most NFP's are not 100% cut and dry like many traders expect it to be... and although the EUR/USD made an initial push towards all-time highs, in the chat we strongly cautioned against taking any longs on Friday and to simply let the market play out as it wished...

Moving on...

Fundamentally, we have an interesting week ahead of us... not quite as challenging as previous weeks, but there are some key events we need to focus on.

Monday -- The only real key data piece is U.S. factory orders. We'll also get a speech by the Fed's Kroszner... although data is light on Monday, don't necessarily expect the market to be quiet... Monday holds the potential to give us some decent moves and volatility...

Tuesday -- We get some key Eurozone inflation data with German and E-zone PMI and Italian CPI... we may see a bit of contraction in those PMI numbers... another key piece of data is E-zone retail sales. Forecasts show a decent rise from the previous decline... I'm not quite as confident on hot retail numbers. Should we see a downside surprise in retail, this will certainly put some pressure on the EUR and renew talk of possible ECB rate cuts...

Key U.S. data on Tuesday is ISM Non Manufacturing... I believe the market will pay close attention to this release as it will give us a current look at what's happening within the service sector. The service sector is one that has remained resilient while other sectors have stumbled the past 6 months... I don't expect a downside surprise with this data, however, should we see anything below 51, the market could certainly react very negatively against the USD...

Wednesday -- Nothing but USD data today... we start out with Non Farm Productivity... I normally wouldn't pay a whole of attention to this particular piece of data, but I think the market and the Fed will be watching, so I'll be watching too... basically, NFP Productivity is a combo growth-related and inflation-related report, but there's a few weird aspects to this report... in a nutshell, basically the FX market wants to see lower NFP Productivity because that correlates into higher wages being paid for less output, which is inflationary, and inflation is good for a currency as it could lead to rate hikes or less rate cuts... make sense?

OK, we also get three Fed speeches -- Lacker, Kroszner, and Plosser... of course, the market will be looking for any clues on future monetary policy, specifically what the Fed's next move on rates will be in March.

Thursday -- Our biggest fundamental day of the week... early in the morning we get key German factory orders data which I believe will be weak... however, our biggest events of the day is the ECB's decision on interest rates followed by Trichet's press conference...

I absolutely, positively, cannot see the ECB cutting rates on Thursday... I do not believe this option is on the table. In fact, there's a higher probability of the ECB raising rates than there is of them cutting rates... I firmly believe Trichet will keep rates on hold at 4.00%... the biggest factor is that CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.2% which is keeping intense inflation pressure on the Eurozone and is keeping inflation well above the ECB's target rate of 2%.

We also get key Initial Claims data on Thursday... last week jobless claims rose to a staggering 375K... we could certainly see that number revised down this week, which would be USD supportive... keep an eye on this week's headline number... if it stays above 340K and we don't get a downward revision to last week's data, the USD could face renewed sell-offs...

At 10:00 we get Pending Home Sales which the market is expecting to "not be as bad as last month." I'm not really buying it... we've not seen the bottom yet, banks are not lending, consumers aren't qualifying for mortgages, there's a 9-month backlog in home inventories, prices paid are way down... it's still a disasterous mess, so I don't expect any mega upside surprises here...

Friday -- Two key pieces of data out of Germany: German Trade Balance and German Industrial Production... trade balance should back down from last month's number as the euro has remained very strong and global economies are starting to slow... as far as industrial production, I'm not very bullish on this one either...

As far as the Fed goes, we get a speech from Yellen very early in the morning, followed by Lockhart and Pianalto speaking later in the afternoon... don't expect anything groundbreaking from that braintrust...

EUR/USD:

If the market wants to keep correcting down, to me, this is not a sign of the dollar gaining strength... nobody is buying dollars at this point... those corrections we've seen and could see are attributed to profit-taking, loss-taking, fluctuations with gold, oil, and equities... basically all the market correlated variables...

There was very little liquidity in the market on Friday, which also puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD... as far as trading goes, I'm still euro long -- cautiously long, of course... and I will likely look at any further downside correcting as another buying opportunity...

In case you missed it, I did a post on the gold-EUR/USD correlation... please take a moment to check it out as gold is one of the most important market correlated variable... As always, take care to manage your risk and money very closely... do not overleverage your account under these current market conditions of uncertainty and risk aversion...

Lastly, I'll do a live audio Q & A in the chat tomorrow at 1100 EST...

-FX Insights

EURUSD Financials 2-3-08 thru 2-8-08.xls

Ron Paul on MTV/MySpace Forum

Part 1

Note: The first three minutes of audio is bad



Part 2



Part 3

Gold, the Euro and the US Dollar

By FX Insights Moderator,

If you’ve spent even just a brief amount of time at FX Insights, surely you’ve noticed how close we watch and track the EUR/USD’s market correlated variables… and just to give the term a proper definition, my definition of what a market correlated variable is:

"A non-Forex factor that has direct connection to the EUR/USD and to the EUR/USD’s price fluctuations."

To put it another way, market correlated variables are factors happening outside of the Forex world, yet have major direct impact on whether the EUR/USD goes up, goes down, and to what degree these moves may occur.

Trading: Primarily, gold is traded on the NYMEX. For gold, there is a spot market, a futures market, and an options market. Gold is traded by everyone from the small potatoes retail investor all the way up the ladder to large banks, hedge funds, institutions, and further on up to the central banks of the world.

Major reasons why gold is purchased: Gold is purchased as a hedge against inflation. Gold is also purchased in “response” to a weakening currency, which in the case of the EUR/USD, gold is and would be purchased as the value of the dollar falls against the euro. Gold can be bought and gold can be shorted, just like a currency can in the spot FX market.

Gold and central banks: Although both the dollar and the euro are fiat currencies, the Fed and ECB have vast gold holdings within their reserves. One way the Fed and ECB control and manipulate the value of their respective currencies is by trading their vast gold reserves. The ECB is especially notorious for dumping many tonnes of their gold on the market at certain times of the year to “cool down” the value of the euro against the dollar. Gold is a powerful market manipulation tool at the hands of the central banks, and the market usually only learns of a central bank’s gold operations after the fact…

Key gold facts: The main reason why the commodity of gold is highly correlated to the EUR/USD is because gold is denominated in U.S. dollars. Gold and the USD share an inverse correlation… think of it this way, when gold is purchased, the USD is sold… the selling of any currency will naturally devalue that currency, so as gold is purchased and the price of gold rises, the value and “price” of the USD must fall because of the inverse correlation that exists between gold and dollar.

It’s my understanding that in 2001 gold began making a very strong resurgence which has ultimately led to this commodity making all-time highs in the $940’s…

This past week the USD/CHF went to post-World War II lows while gold was making all-time highs. Going back to 2001, look at the EUR’s climb to dominance over the USD… looking at the big picture, the EUR/USD has moved up in tandem with gold, while the USD Index has moved against gold and the EUR/USD…

Other key facts about gold and the USD: As we mentioned earlier, gold is denominated in U.S. dollars. So lets think about it… if the dollar is strong, you could buy more gold, literally getting more bang for your buck… a weak dollar buys less gold… here we have yet another reason why the weak dollar will only keep upward momentum going for gold – as long as the USD stays weak, the market stays bearish on the USD, gold naturally has to stay strong and has to rise, which then naturally correlates into the EUR staying bullish against the USD.

Gold and inflation: Back in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s U.S. inflation was absolutely out of control, and this runaway inflation issue took gold up to almost the $900 level, which must have been a staggering price back in those days… the Fed had to raise interest rates several hundred basis points very rapidly to slow inflation and this eventual mega rise in interest rates caused gold to loose half of it’s value and by 1983 gold was in the $400’s.

So as you can see, inflation is another key factor in the value of gold… when inflation rises, gold rises, but when a central bank steps in with interest-rate-raising tactics to slow inflation, gold will fall in value accordingly… and following this natural progression… higher rates = less inflation = weaker gold. Higher rates = a stronger dollar and a stronger dollar = weaker gold…

In many ways inflation is reflected in the price of gold which is then reflected in the price of the EUR/USD as more times than not gold leads the EUR/USD…

Practical exercise: I’d like to pause and take you through a practical exercise… this is how I think things through and how I attempt to forecast the market and formulate a predictive view of the EUR/USD… this is the kind of stuff that goes on in my head, so I’m going to do my best to communicate it as simply and clearly as possible…

First, I always start with interest rates… interest rates, as you’ve heard me say a katrillion times are paramount in the spot FX market…

For now I see the Fed in a rate cut cycle and the ECB in a rate hold cycle, at least through the spring of this year… I think the Fed can cut rates another 50bps or more before it’s all said and done. So going forward starting with interest rate cuts, here’s how I think it through:

1. Fed rates stay at 3.00% and possibly get cut further

2. Low rates and rate cuts weaken and devalue the USD

3. The weak USD correlates into higher gold prices

4. Higher gold prices correlate into the EUR/USD continuing to make bullish gains

5. Rate cuts and weak USD lead to rising U.S. inflation

6. Rising inflation leads to buying of gold, driving gold prices higher, driving EUR/USD higher

7. Rising inflation causes the consumer to slow spending, which further weakens the USD

So, that’s my logical way of thinking through what’s happening within the market under current conditions. The Fed seems reluctant to combat inflation and hell-bent on trying to stimulate growth and appease global markets with heavy rate cuts, so I believe this will naturally lead to more gold gains which should keep the euro supported against the dollar, at least until the Eurozone fundamentals really start turning south and the ECB begins following the Fed with rate cuts of their own, at which time we should see some rapid declines in the value of the EUR vs. the USD.

Gold and recessions: Currently, the hot debate is whether or not the U.S. is in a full-blown recession, the start of a recession, or a few negative GDP reports away from a recession… I’m not a college-degreed economist, so I can’t give you the textbook answer… personally, I look at two key things to help me determine a U.S. recession situation, and those two factors are gold and the employment situation (which then trickles down to the death of the consumer).

The rapid rise in gold prices and the rapid decline in new job creations, the loss of construction and manufacturing jobs, the rise in new and continuing jobless claims and the almost 100bps rise in the unemployment rate signal a real recession… and I think these signals were obvious many months ago when gold really started taking off…

But here’s where it gets a little weird with gold and recessions – believe it or not, history has shown us that when the U.S. is in a full-blown, established, and recognized recession, the price of gold has stabilized and or declined! So this means if all the world’s economists put their heads together and officially declare that the U.S. is in a recession, we could see the price of gold level off or drop, which could push the value of the USD up against the EUR…doesn’t make much sense that the USD could strengthen during a recession, but it’s certainly possible…

Gold and trading the EUR/USD: Here’s where we get practical when it comes to using gold as an indicator to trade the EUR/USD…

Quite simply, I am watching the spot gold market just as much as I’m watching the EUR/USD price action… moves in the price of gold more often than not will lead moves in the EUR/USD… gold is a tremendous leading indicator… if I’m trading the market intraday, I’m watching every little uptick and downtick with gold… I watch the NY spot gold market like a hawk…

If you’re one of our many tech traders trying to wean off the techs and learn how the EUR/USD really moves and why it really moves, you’d be well served watching the spot gold market as a key indicator… do yourself a favor and compare a 1-week gold chart to a 1-week EUR/USD chart, pick any week really, and you’ll see what I’m talking about…

There’s really no way I can glamorize the gold-EUR/USD correlation… it’s fairly simple and fairly cut and dry… it’s not a magic bullet indicator, and as I always say, there’s no such thing as “always” in the FX market, but gold is a highly probable and fairly consistent market correlated variable.

If you don’t track it or use it as a trading indicator, I encourage you to begin doing so… it’s only going to enhance your trading and give you more wins vs. losses as it will paint a clearer picture of market direction.

When the spot gold market is volatile you can expect the EUR/USD to be volatile… when gold decides to find its next top and correct, you can likely expect the EUR/USD to correct with it… the overall euro fundamentals do not warrant the value of the EUR/USD to be north of 1.4200, however, because of market correlated variables like gold being on such a bullish run, the euro naturally has to come up with it…

Again, of all the market correlated variables like oil, bonds, and equities, I believe the tightest overall correlation exists between gold and the EUR/USD.

Lastly, based on past experiences, I know there’s somebody or several somebodies out there who’ve read this and are thinking, “So if gold goes up, what does the EUR/USD do?” If you’re not sure, find me in the chat and ask, I can always use the amusement…

-FX Insights

The International Muggers Fund

This is the new boss at the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

He is affiliated to the Socialist Party in France. The political ideology of the Socialist Party is Social democracy. So what is socialism? The wolf disguised in sheeps clothing, namely communism.

From the Fabian Socialists, our dear friends John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White were delegates at 1944's United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, where of course the IMF was found. Brilliant!

No wonder the financial system is a mess. Socialists managing capitalism! Hah! I however believe it is the other way around. It is the Socialists working towards the destruction of capitalism through the use of inflation.

And that, ladies and gentleman, is what the Fed is busy doing to the dollar. Inflating, deflating, inflating, deflating until such time the US Dollar as the World Reserve Currency implodes, which will herald the day of whatever new or other currency they have up their sleeves.

The UN is part of this Global Hegemony of Socialists/Communists, and this is what one lone individual, namely Ron Paul, is up against.

A vote against Ron Paul is a vote in favour of this abomination that is devouring our freedom. Essentially, Ron Paul is fighting for the freedom of every individual on this planet.

Wake Up !!!

Something Smells Fishy Here

New cable cut compounds net woes


BBC News - A submarine cable in the Middle East has been snapped, adding to global net problems caused by breaks in two lines under the Mediterranean on Wednesday.

The Falcon cable, owned by a firm which operates another damaged cable, led to a "critical" telecom breakdown, according to one local official.

The cause of the latest break has not been confirmed but a repair ship has been deployed, said owner Flag Telecom.

The earlier break disrupted service in Egypt, the Middle East and India.

******

My Comment: Something is going on here. Two cable cuts in a week...deep under the ocean???

Music to my Ears

KT Tunstall - Saving my Face



KT Tunstall - Black Horse And The Cherry Tree (ABSOLUTELY AWSOME!!!)

Jim Cramer dissed by Rick Santelli

A boiled Egg is hard to beat

Reuters reports that the Web bank Egg withdraws cards from riskier customers. The Citigroup owned bank, following a risk review, will withdraw credit cards from 161,000 of their customers.

The Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking Away

Cash strapped consumers are increasingly turning to charge cards and home equity lines to support consumption. Some Debt Trends Are Good. This Isn’t One of Them.

American credit card debt is growing at the fastest rate in years, a fact that may signal coming trouble for the banks that issue them.

The Federal Reserve reported this week that the amount of revolving consumer credit that is outstanding hit $937.5 billion in November, seasonally adjusted, up 7.4 percent from a year earlier. The annual growth rate has now been over 7 percent for three months running, the first such stretch since 2001, when a recession was driving up borrowing by hard-pressed consumers.

More Salad, Less Twinkies

By Peter Schiff,

February 1, 2008

Despite the fact that the Fed still believes that a recession is unlikely to occur, Bernanke & Co. followed up on last week’s emergency 75 basis point rate cut with a 50 basis point kicker on Wednesday. Not to be outdone by the Fed’s generosity, the House of Representatives and the Bush Administration slapped together a $150 billion “stimulus package”, which can only be delayed by the Senate’s desire to join in the bead throwing. On Wall Street these actions were cheered as heroic, with praise and accolades for all (what could be more politically courageous than handing out free money in an election year.) In a recent poll, fully 78% of economists thought these policies were appropriate…while 18% thought that they were not aggressive enough.

A common definition of insanity is the act of repeating the same activity while expecting a different result. Bernanke is now repeating the same mistakes made by Greenspan, yet he and almost everyone on Wall Street expect a different result. The stock market bubble of the 1990s resulted from interest rates being too low, which sent false signals to businesses, causing them to over-invest in information technology, telecom, and dot coms. When that bubble burst, rather than allowing the corrective recession to run its course, the Fed responded by slashing interest rates. The result was an even larger bubble in real estate; causing consumers to borrow far too much money to buy houses and other goodies.

Now that the housing bubble has burst, the Fed is once again slashing interest rates to postpone the pain. However, in order to correct for years of extravagant borrowing and spending, the country is in desperate need of a period of saving and economizing. But by rewarding debtors and punishing savers, lower interest rates actually encourage the opposite behavior. Given how much harm this strategy has already done in the past why should we assume it will work any better now?

Consider a real world example. Suppose your spendthrift neighbor, maxed out on credit card and home equity debt, no savings in the bank, struggling to make ends meet and one paycheck away from foreclosure and personal bankruptcy, comes to you for financial advice regarding what to do with the $1,200 he received in the Federal Stimulus Lottery? Would your advice be to “go out and buy yourself a brand new plasma T.V.”? My guess is that you would suggest he pay down his debts. If you were a good friend you might help him devise a budget to put his financial house back in order. Such a plan might include trading in his Mercedes SUV for a more fuel efficient Honda, brown bag lunches instead of expensive restaurants, tearing up department store charge cards, cancelling vacations, cutting back premium cable channels, etc. When you are neck deep in debt, the solution is to economize, ratchet down your lifestyle and repair your personal balance sheet. In other words, you go though your own personal recession.

Would your advice be any different if it was not just one neighbor asking but 300 million? If it’s wrong for an overly-indebted individual to blow a windfall, it’s just as wrong if millions of us do it collectively. If our economy is already suffering from too much debt, think of how much worse off we will be after we blow through these rebate checks.

Or think about it this way -- Imagine an obese individual showing up at a Weight Watchers meeting and his counselor handing him a box of Twinkies? How much weight do you think would be lost on the “Twinkie diet?” American consumers have basically stuffed themselves almost to the point of explosion. What is needed is salad; not more Twinkies.

Ironically of course, by blowing up both the stock market bubble in the 1990s and the real estate bubble that followed, Greenspan actually repeated the same mistakes that previous Fed chairmen Benjamin Strong and William McChensey Martin made in the 1920s and the 1960s respectively. It seems sanity is a major disqualification for central bankers.

For a more in depth analysis of the tenuous position of the Americana economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.”

******

Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, Peter is a highly recommended broker by many leading financial newsletters and investment advisory services. He is also a contributing commentator for Newsweek International and served as an economic advisor to the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.

What Will You Do With Your Gold?

by Gary North

This assumes you have bought some gold.

A lot of my readers have read my recommendation – "Buy some gold" – for six years. They still haven't bought any. They apparently think it's good enough to have read a few reports on the importance of buying gold. "Now I don't actually have to buy any." It's like an overweight person reading a diet book while munching on Fritos and bean dip.

There is an astounding amount of misinformation on gold available on the Web. This shows the tremendous impact of the Web. Back in 1995, this misinformation was far more limited in its scope.

Here is the main piece of information: "Gold! Gold! I'll be rich – rich, I tell you! Hahahahaha."

No, you won't. Here's why.

The Revolution: A Manifesto

'Truth is treason in the empire of lies.'



The people who pledged at RonPaulBookBomb.com today have caused Ron Paul's new Book, The Revolution: A Manifesto to rise to the Top 100 Bestsellers. It is now beating out both Obama and Colbert. This is just the beginning, of course. Look out for The Manifesto in the top 10! It's currently at #3!

I have just pre-ordered my copy. I can't make a donation, so I found another way to support the good man! :-)

Who Owns You ???

WARNING: Some rough language in this clip

New Ron Paul Ad

EURUSD 1.50 Within Reach Though Retailers Increasing Their Shorts

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 20.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 28.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. The considerable jump in short positioning over the past week reflects retailers’ confidence in resistance read at 1.49. However, since retailers are usually on the wrong side of the trade on trends and breakouts, this position may foreshadow the break to 1.50 that the market has threatened for many months.

Full Article

Stagflation dilemma haunts euro

But other analysts say European growth worries are premature

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to the threat of stagflation, the European Central Bank has appeared much more worried about the inflation portion of that dreaded compound word than signs of a stagnating economy.

But some foreign exchange analysts say Thursday's muted reaction by foreign-exchange and fixed-income markets to another round of troubling euro zone inflation data increased the likelihood that policymakers may soon pay more heed to signs of slowing European growth.
Stagflation describes a period of low or negative growth and high price inflation. Signs of the latter have been evident for a while, and more evidence emerged Thursday.

READ THE REST

The BIG Spenders vs The One Cutter

Click on the Image for the Bigger Picture

U.S. mortgage rates reverse course and rise

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage rates rose this week, ending about a month-long streak of declines, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey released Thursday.

"The movement in fixed mortgage rates was broadly consistent with the movements of Treasury bonds over the week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a news release. The 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by about 0.2 percentage points, he said, erasing the previous week's decline.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.68% during the week ending Jan. 31, up from last week's 5.48%. The mortgage averaged 6.34% a year ago. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.17%, up from 4.95%. The mortgage averaged 6.06% a year ago.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.32%, up from last week's 5.13%. The ARM averaged 6.04% a year ago. And 1-year Treasury -indexed ARMs averaged 5.05%, up from 4.99%. The ARM averaged 5.54% a year ago.

READ THE REST

Expect more than a typical recession

SEATTLE (MarketWatch) -- Call this the perfect financial storm or what you will; Wall Street has made fools of financial institutions around the world with their CMOs, CDOs, and greedy boo-boos.

At least they didn't lose as much as their customers. The stock market is in distress, bond insurers are looking for a $200 billion bailout, junk-bond markets are at risk of further losses and life-, home- and auto insurers' risk has not yet been fully assessed.

We need real ready-to-go financial leadership and we need it now. Tell the presidential candidates, Congress and economists to stay home. We need regulators with clear priorities.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, former FDIC Chairman Bill Isaacs and anyone they trust would be good choices. They beat inflation and presided over the savings and loan cleanup. Tell Ben Bernanke to go home.

As for you personally, it's every person for themselves and their family. Study the charts: This is a bear market.

READ THE REST

Jobless claims surge, spending softens

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of workers filing new claims for jobless aid surged last week to the highest since October 2005, and consumer spending softened at the end of last year, according to reports on Thursday that heightened worries about a possible recession.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped by 69,000 last week to 375,000. It was the biggest jump since September 2005 and the highest since October of that year, just after Hurricane Katrina devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Separately, the Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up by 0.2 percent in December after a 1 percent gain in November, just enough to keep pace with inflation.

READ THE REST

Gold Investments Market Update

Prior to the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest cut to 3%, gold was down $3.60 to $921.20 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was down 4 cents to $16.74 per ounce. Gold surged (from $920 to $934.25) to new record highs after the interest rate decision at 2:30 p.m (1930 GMT) in after-hours trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Silver surged to new highs at $16.87.

Both have seen profit taking and have since sold off in Asian and European trading. A monthly close above $900 tomorrow, the first ever, would obviously be very bullish from a technical point of view.

Negative real interest rates (with the key discount rate less than the rate of inflation) in the world’s largest economy is very inflationary and could lead to gold reaching $1,000 in the coming weeks, as the dollar comes under further pressure. The moniker ‘Helicopter Bernanke’ is looking more and more apposite as the Federal Reserve chairman again drops copious amounts of liquidity onto the increasingly troubled financial and economic waters. The risk is that by attempting to prevent deflation in asset classes, the Federal Reserve ends up creating stagflation and a mild form of hyperinflation. Or even worse by endeavoring to protect the banks, stock and property markets they end up putting the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency at risk.

READ THE REST