The Fed and The Sorcerer's New Apprentice

Uncle Sam Crying "Uncle!"

by Antal E. Fekete

Tertium datur

People tend to think in terms of black-and-white. Many of my correspondents think that either hyperinflation or deflation is in store for the dollar; tertium non datur (no third possibility given). I would say tertium datur. The third possibility is a hybrid of hyperinflation and deflation. I described this scenario in my previous article "Opening the Mint to Gold and Silver". It is possible, even probable, that we shall witness collapsing world trade and collapsing world employment together with competitive currency devaluations, as the three superpowers compete in trying to corner gold. The lure of gold is very strong. "There is no fever like gold fever" and, contrary to conventional wisdom, governments are especially susceptible.

A large part of the problem is that the Central Bank is helpless in the face of bond speculation. The Fed is no Sorcerer. It is the Sorcerer's Apprentice. It can pump unlimited amounts of "liquidity" into the system, but cannot make it flow uphill. As we shall see, new dollars flow to the bond market causing a lot of mischief there, instead of flowing to the commodity market as hoped by the Fed.

Up to now leading commodities have outperformed gold. That could change. A select few commodities might continue in the bull-mode for a time, although gold could easily beat them. Most other commodities might go into a bear-mode similar to that of the commodity markets of the 1930's. If that's what was in store, then most investors would be totally lost. They would be navigating without a compass. There would be endless debates whether the country is experiencing deflation of hyperinflation. Your motto in this hybrid scenario should be: "expect the unexpected".

Of course, the Fed will keep printing dollars like crazy. Few of them, if any, will go into commodities. Indeed, most of the newly created dollars will go into bond speculation. Why? Because commodity bulls are running into headwind and face grave risks. By contrast, bond bulls enjoy a pleasant tailwind. Bond speculation is virtually risk-free. Under our irredeemable dollar bond bulls have a built-in advantage. The Fed has to make periodic trips to the bond market in order to make its regular open-market purchases of bonds to augment the money supply. In order to win, all the bond speculator has to do is to stalk the Fed and forestall its bond purchases. This is the Achillean heel of Keynesianism: it makes bond speculation inherently asymmetric favoring the bulls, and that will ultimately derail the economy on the deflation-side of the track.

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The Mother of All Bubbles

By Peter Schiff

In contrast to the dismal forecasting record of mainstream economists over the last few years, the forecasts that I have made regarding the dollar, oil, commodities, precious metals, global stock markets, inflation, and the U.S. economy have all come to pass. In addition, unlike the top economic oracles on Wall Street and in Washington, I can also point to similar accuracy in predicting the bursting of growing bubbles, first with technology in the late 1990’s, and more recently with real estate. However, my long-standing prediction about the fate of the bond market has fared much worse. I still do believe this prediction was not wrong, but simply premature.

For years I have predicted that the falling dollar, persistent trade deficit, and the lack of domestic savings would combine to send long-term interest rates sharply higher. The effects of these fundamental drivers would undermine the Fed’s efforts to lower short-term rates and compound the problems for the housing market and the U.S. economy. Yet as of today, the yield on the thirty-year Treasury bond still stands below 4.5%, within 40 basis points of a generational low. Either this is the one piece of the puzzle that I somehow got wrong, or other factors are working to temporarily confound fundamental economics and prop up the bond market. As you might imagine, I am confident that it is the latter and consider the U.S. Treasury market to be the mother of all bubbles.

I have often said that the only thing worse than holding U.S. dollars is holding promises to be paid U.S. dollars at some distant point in the future. However, this is precisely what U.S. Treasuries represent. Given all of the inflation that already exists, and all of the additional inflation likely to be created over that time period, why would anyone pay par value for the right to receive $1,000 in thirty years in exchange for a mere 4.5% coupon? Although it looks like the sucker bet of the century, the fools have been lining up to buy. Alan Greeenspan called this a "conundrum." I simply call it mass delusion of the same variety that brought us pets.com, and $800,000 tract homes in the middle of the California desert.

Just like dot coms or real estate, today’s bond prices reflect a fantasy world. In this "Bizarro" reality, the dollar will remain strong, inflation will stay low, economic strength will persist uninterrupted, and Fed policy will be predominantly hawkish for the foreseeable future. But when the fog finally lifts, and investors come to grips with a sagging dollar, recession, gaping budget and current account deficits, and the most accommodative Fed imaginable, bond prices will collapse, sending long-term interest rates skyrocketing higher. Unfortunately, for investors who hitched their wagons to benign government CPI statistics and ignored real world evidence of inflation [rapid money supply growth, surging gold, oil and other commodity prices (wheat and soy beans prices catapulted to record highs this week), the sinking dollar, and actual increases in consumer prices,] the losses will be excruciatingly real.

It is important to remember that for every borrower there has to be a lender. For example, if a homeowner wants to refinance his mortgage, there must be someone willing to loan him the money. Practically everyone on Wall Street is hailing the Fed’s recent rate cuts because they believe it will allow strapped ARM holders to refinance into more affordable mortgages. However, while low rates are great for borrowers, they are lousy for lenders. Why would anyone want to offer a thirty-year mortgage at an artificially depressed interest rate? As soon as the Fed raises rates again, as it clearly intends to do once the crisis ends, all that low yielding mortgage paper will collapse in value. Lenders can surely figure this out and will therefore refuse to volunteer to be the patsy in this plan.

Eventually, the world’s lenders will reach similar conclusions with respect to U.S. Treasuries. No matter how low the Fed funds or discount rates get, private savers around the world will simply refuse to lend given the inherent risks and paltry returns. At some point the sheer absurdity of holding long-term, low-yielding receipts for future payments of depreciating U.S. dollars will be apparent to all. After all, it was not too long ago that investors thought holding subprime mortgages from financially strapped borrowers who could not possibly repay them was also a great idea -- so great in fact that many leveraged themselves to the hilt to buy them. Judging from the extremely poor demand at this week’s $9 billion auction of thirty-year Treasury bonds, the day of reckoning may not be too far off.

For now there are a host of factors temporarily propping up the Treasury bond market, such as unrealistically sanguine inflation expectations, foreign central bank and hedge fund buying, short covering, credit spreads, problems in the mortgage market, recession fears, and flight to what is falsely perceived to represent the ultimately in safety and quality. When these props give way, look out below! As we have learned from previous bubbles they can inflate for a long time before they burst. As this one has been inflating longer then most it has amassed quite a bit of air. When it ultimately finds its pin the popping sound will be deafening.

For a more in depth analysis of the tenuous position of the Americana economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.”

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Mr. Schiff began his investment career as a financial consultant with Shearson Lehman Brothers, after having earned a degree in finance and accounting from U.C. Berkeley in 1987. A financial professional for over twenty years he joined Euro Pacific in 1996 and has served as its President since January 2000. An expert on money, economic theory, and international investing, Peter is a highly recommended broker by many leading financial newsletters and investment advisory services. He is also a contributing commentator for Newsweek International and served as an economic advisor to the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.

>> Click here for Mr. Schiff's video interviews.

U.S. mortgage rates reverse course and rise

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage rates rose this week, ending about a month-long streak of declines, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey released Thursday.

"The movement in fixed mortgage rates was broadly consistent with the movements of Treasury bonds over the week," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a news release. The 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by about 0.2 percentage points, he said, erasing the previous week's decline.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.68% during the week ending Jan. 31, up from last week's 5.48%. The mortgage averaged 6.34% a year ago. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.17%, up from 4.95%. The mortgage averaged 6.06% a year ago.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 5.32%, up from last week's 5.13%. The ARM averaged 6.04% a year ago. And 1-year Treasury -indexed ARMs averaged 5.05%, up from 4.99%. The ARM averaged 5.54% a year ago.

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